Sensitivity of Mesoscale-Model Forecast Skill to Some Initial-Data Characteristics, Data Density, Data Position, Analysis Procedure and Measurement Error
Sensitivity of Mesoscale-Model Forecast Skill to Some Initial-Data Characteristics, Data Density, Data Position, Analysis Procedure and Measurement Error
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中尺度模式预报技术对某些初始数据特征、数据密度、数据位置、分析过程和测量误差的敏感性
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发表时间：
1989
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Annette M. Lario
中科院分区：
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作者：
T. Warner;L. E. Key;Annette M. Lario
摘要进行了观测系统模拟试验（OSSE），以确定水平和垂直数据分辨率，数据位置和测量误差对中尺度预报精度的影响。对于数据密度实验，在对东海岸气旋生成事件进行36小时中尺度模式预报12小时后，提取了具有各种水平和垂直分辨率的数据集。在将提取的数据重新分析回模型网格后，重新启动模型，并将12小时至36小时期间的实验预测与原始控制预测进行比较。除了这些数据密度实验之外，还进行了其他OSSE，其中在不同位置提取数据，并且在模拟数据集中施加测量误差。初始和预报误差使用平均误差统计以及主要气象特征的幅度和位置进行量化。结果表明，相对于控制运行定义的误差，…
Abstract Observing‐system simulation experiments (OSSE) were performed in order to determine the effect of horizontal and vertical data resolution, data location and measurement error on mesoscale‐forecast accuracy. For the data‐density experiments, data sets with various horizontal and vertical resolutions were extracted after 12 h of a 36‐h mesoscale model forecast of an East Coast cyclogenesis event. After reanalysis of the extracted data back to the model grid, the model was restarted and the experimental forecasts were compared to the original control forecast for the 12‐h to 36‐h period. In addition to these data‐density experiments, other OSSEs were performed in which the data were extracted at different locations, and in which measurement error was imposed in the simulated data sets. Initial and forecast errors were quantified using average‐error statistics as well as the amplitude and position of major meteorological features. Results show that the error, defined with respect to the control run, ...