DETERMINING TRANSITION-PROBABILITIES - CONFUSION AND SUGGESTIONS
DETERMINING TRANSITION-PROBABILITIES - CONFUSION AND SUGGESTIONS
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DOI：
10.1177/0272989x9401400107
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发表时间：
1994-01-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
HOMAN, SM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
MILLER, DK;HOMAN, SM
在文献中，关于正确使用费率和风险这两个术语的混淆仍然存在。这对于在决策分析和相关技术中正确地模拟预后和健康状态之间的转换具有重要意义。与利率和风险相关的过多术语让这个问题变得复杂起来。尽管用力和概率这两个术语来替代利率和风险的建议有一定的吸引力，但术语的改变本身不太可能解决所有术语的混淆或误用。本文阐明了利率和风险的正确定义和估计，并建议决策分析师在使用、建模或解释转换率和风险时应记住的关键因素。
Confusion regarding proper use of the terms rate and risk persists in the literature. This has implications for the proper modeling of prognosis and transition between health states in decision analysis and related techniques. The issue is complicated by the plethora of terms related to rate and risk. Although the suggestion to use the terms force and probability as substitutes for rate and risk has some appeal, the change in terminology by itself is unlikely to solve all the confusion or misuse of terms. This paper clarifies the proper definitions and estimations of rates and risks and suggests critical factors for the decision analyst to remember when using, modeling, or interpreting transition rates and risks.