Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980-2003
Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980-2003
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.08.016
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发表时间：
2007-05-15
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Wei, Yi-Ming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan, Ying;Liu, Lan-Cui;Wei, Yi-Ming
1980-2003年期间，中国经历了可持续的快速经济增长，但与此同时，与能源有关的碳强度呈下降趋势。因此，这就引出了一个问题，是什么因素推动了碳强度的下降，这种下降在未来会保持下去吗？此外，有什么措施可以确保碳强度持续下降？这些问题导致了对中国CO2排放影响因素的研究日益增多。本文量化了中国一次能源相关碳强度的驱动力，并测算了物质生产部门的最终能源相关碳强度。我们的结果表明，能源相关碳强度下降的压倒性贡献者是真实的能源强度的降低。然而，仅注重降低能源强度的政策不足以进一步降低碳强度。一次能源结构的变化可以促进碳强度的下降。这应侧重于材料生产部门的发展战略和最终能源使用。第二产业的发展需要国家和地方政府的政策支持。(C)2006 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
China experienced sustainable, rapid economic growth over the period 1980-2003 but, at the same time, energy-related carbon intensity showed a downward trend. It begs the question, therefore, what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future? Moreover, what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity? These questions led to increased research in the factors governing CO2 emission in China. This paper quantifies the driving force behind China's primary energy-related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors' final energy-related carbon intensity. Our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy-related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity. However, policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity. The change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity. This should focus on the material production sectors' development strategies and final energy use. Greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry, which needs national and regional governments' policy support. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.