A Pathway for Sustainable Agriculture
A Pathway for Sustainable Agriculture
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DOI：
10.3390/su13084328
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发表时间：
2021-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Higgins, Chad W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
AL-agele, Hadi A.;Nackley, Lloyd;Higgins, Chad W.
人口增长、气候变化的影响、可耕地的可用性和灌溉用水的可用性共同给农业系统带来了压力。为了跟上并适应这些挑战，粮食生产者可能会采取不可持续的做法，最终可能会加剧压力。什么样的技术发展和采用过程可以打破这种循环？在本文中，我们探索了一套技术和食品生产的情况下，一个新的，降阶模型。首先，建立了模型。该模型结合了可持续供水、农业生产力作为集约化功能的局限性以及不断增长的粮食需求。模型输入数据来自文献及历史记录。该模型的蒙特卡罗模拟运行用于探索现有和未来技术的潜力，使我们更接近而不是更远的可持续未来。这是可持续性发展的概念（如果需求保持不变，未来的一年可以通过当前的技术进步实现可持续性）。可持续性差距是指当前和可持续性水平之间的年数。随着需求的增加，可持续发展的前景越来越远。随着技术的改进和生产力的提高，可持续性的前景越来越接近现在。因此，当可持续性视野与当前发生冲突，将可持续性差距缩小到零时，可持续性就实现了。我们找到了一条水管理技术采用和创新的途径，可以缩小降阶模型输出中的可持续性差距。在这种情况下，需要采用微灌、最小化气候变化影响、减少食物浪费以及智能温室和农业光伏系统等其他变革性创新。该模型表明，如果没有这些变化，并继续沿着我们目前的路线，农业系统的生产力将在2050年后的十年中变得不足。
Expanding populations, the impacts of climate change, availability of arable land, and availability of water for irrigation collectively strain the agricultural system. To keep pace and adapt to these challenges, food producers may adopt unsustainable practices that may ultimately intensify the strain. What is a course of technological evolution and adoption that can break this cycle? In this paper we explore a set of technologies and food production scenarios with a new, reduced-order model. First the model is developed. The model combines limitations in the sustainable water supply, agricultural productivity as a function of intensification, and rising food demands. Model inputs are derived from the literature and historical records. Monte Carlo simulation runs of the model are used to explore the potential of existing and future technologies to bring us ever closer to a more sustainable future instead of ever farther. This is the concept of a moving sustainability horizon (the year in the future where sustainability can be achieved with current technological progress if demand remains constant). The sustainability gap is the number of years between the present and the sustainability horizon. As demand increases, the sustainability horizon moves farther into the future. As technology improves and productivity increases, the sustainability horizon is closer to the present. Sustainability, therefore, is achieved when the sustainability horizon collides with the present, closing the sustainability gap to zero. We find one pathway for water management technology adoption and innovation that closes the sustainability gap within the reduced-order model's outputs. In this scenario, micro-irrigation adoption, minimal climate change impacts, reduced food waste, and additional transformative innovations such as smart greenhouses and agrivoltaic systems are collectively needed. The model shows that, in the absence of these changes, and continuing along our current course, the productivity of the agricultural system would become insufficient in the decade following 2050.