Estimating tropical cyclone precipitation risk in Texas
Estimating tropical cyclone precipitation risk in Texas
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DOI：
10.1002/2013gl058284
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发表时间：
2013-12-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu, Laiyin;Quiring, Steven M.;Emanuel, Kerry A.
本文使用一种新的降雨算法来模拟德克萨斯州的长期热带气旋降水（TCP）气候学，基于1980 - 2010年美国国家大气研究中心/国家环境预测中心再分析数据生成的合成热带气旋。合成TCP气候显示出良好的协议与现有的观测TCP重现期，特别是日常和事件TCP。距离海岸200公里以内的地区有更高的TCP风险，两个热点位于休斯顿和科珀斯克里斯蒂附近。基于这种技术，在德克萨斯州的一些地点，TCP事件> 1000 mm的重现期为500年，TCP事件> 1400 mm的重现期为1000年。有一个高度的空间异质性，在得克萨斯州中部的TCP风险，由于地形。
This paper uses a new rainfall algorithm to simulate the long-term tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) climatology in Texas based on synthetic tropical cyclones generated from National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data from 1980 to 2010. The synthetic TCP climatology shows good agreement with the available observations with respect to TCP return periods, especially for daily and event TCP. Areas within 200km of the coast have higher TCP risk with two hot spots located near Houston and Corpus Christi. Based on this technique, there are locations in Texas where a TCP event>1000mm has a return period of 500years and a TCP event>1400mm has a return period of 1000years. There is a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in TCP risk in central Texas due to the topography.