Evolution of China's City-Size Distribution
Evolution of China's City-Size Distribution
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DOI：
10.2753/ces1097-1475460103
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发表时间：
2013-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhenpo Wang;Jiangnan Zhu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhenpo Wang;Jiangnan Zhu
本文研究了1949年至2008年中国以非农业人口衡量的城市规模分布的演变。通过时间序列基尼系数、直布罗特定律的面板单位根检验和分布动力学分析，检验了研究结果的稳健性。虽然中国的城市规模分布在短期内呈现出不同的增长模式，但从长期来看，它呈现出大致平行的增长模式。这表明，城市规模分布的平行增长规则也适用于发展中国家，尽管在那里可能会有不同的效果。在城市体系相对成熟和完善的国家，所有城市的增长率都是相似的，从而导致了平行增长。在经历快速城市化的发展中国家，平行增长主要是由于大量新城市的出现和崛起，抵消了大城市的快速增长速度。这表明，政府旨在影响城市规模的政策可能具有误导性。
This article studies the evolution of China's city-size distribution, as measured by its nonagricultural population, from 1949 to 2008. The robustness of the findings was checked by means of time-series Gini coefficients, panel unit root tests for Gibrat's law, and analysis of distribution dynamics. Although China's city-size distribution presented different patterns of growth in the short run, it has shown an approximately parallel-growth model in the long run. This indicates that the parallel growth rule of city-size distribution also applies to developing countries, though it might work differently there. In countries with relatively mature and complete urban systems, parallel growth results from similar growth rates in all the cities. In developing countries experiencing rapid urbanization, parallel growth mainly results from the emergence and rise of a large number of new cities, offseting the fast growth rate of large cities. This demonstrates that government policy intended to affect city size may be misleading.