Optimal Social Distancing Policy for COVID-19 Control in Korea: A Model-Based Analysis.
Optimal Social Distancing Policy for COVID-19 Control in Korea: A Model-Based Analysis.
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DOI：
10.3346/jkms.2022.37.e189
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发表时间：
2022-06-13
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Jaehun, Jung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Youngji, Jo;Sourya, Shrestha;Munkhzul, Radnaabaatar;Hojun, Park;Jaehun, Jung
自2020年3月2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）被宣布为大流行以来，许多国家采取了前所未有的限制措施来遏制病毒的传播。本研究旨在探索韩国COVID-19控制的最佳社交距离政策，以安全地重新开放社会。我们开发了一个特定年龄的确定性隔室流行病模型，以研究COVID-19控制决策过程，包括2021年7月1日至2022年12月30日期间严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）的流行病学。该模型包括COVID-19的自然历史、检测性能、疫苗接种以及检测和控制SARS-CoV-2的社交距离强制措施。我们用三个不同的组成部分模拟了潜在的干预情景：1）社交距离持续时间和水平; 2）测试强度; 3）疫苗接种率。主要和次要结局是COVID-19的发病率和需要重症监护室（ICU）护理的重症患者的患病率。如果检测强度和疫苗接种率保持不变或增加20%（相对于当前水平），四个月（或更长时间）的社交距离（可减少40-60%的传播）可能会缓解未来的流行病复发和ICU需求，并将病例保持在容量限制以下。相比之下，只要检测强度和疫苗接种率提高20%，两个月的严格社交距离执法也可能成功缓解未来的疫情激增和ICU需求。在韩国，鉴于疫苗接种覆盖率相对较高且发病率较低，在取消社交距离措施后，实施四个月或更长时间的社交距离措施可有效缓解疫情死灰复燃。此外，增加检测强度和疫苗接种率可能有助于减少必要的社交距离水平和持续时间，以防止未来疫情死灰复燃，减轻社会和经济损失。
Since March 2020, when coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic, many countries have applied unprecedented restrictive measures to contain the spread of the virus. This study aimed to explore the optimal social distancing policy for COVID-19 control in South Korea to safely reopen the society. We developed an age-specific, deterministic compartment epidemic model to examine the COVID-19 control decision-making process, including the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between 1 July 2021 and 30 December 2022. The model consists of the natural history of COVID-19, testing performance, vaccinations, and social distancing enforcement measures to detect and control SARS-CoV-2. We modelled potential intervention scenarios with three distinct components: 1) social distancing duration and level; 2) testing intensity; and 3) vaccination uptake rate. The primary and secondary outcomes were COVID-19 incidence and prevalence of severe patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) care. Four (or more) months of social distancing (that can reduce 40–60% transmission) may mitigate epidemic resurgence and ICU demand in the future and keep the cases below the capacity limit if the testing intensity and vaccination rate remain constant or increase by 20% (with respect to the current level). In contrast, two months of strict social distancing enforcement may also successfully mitigate future epidemic surge and ICU demand as long as testing intensity and vaccination rates are increased by 20%. In South Korea, given the relatively high vaccination coverage and low incidence, four or more months of social distancing enforcement can effectively mitigate epidemic resurgence after lifting the social distancing measures. In addition, increasing the testing intensity and vaccination rate may help reduce necessary social distancing levels and duration to prevent a future epidemic resurgence and mitigate social and economic damage.