Bridging the gap between science and decision making
Bridging the gap between science and decision making
复制标题
弥合科学与决策之间的差距
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
D. von Winterfeldt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. von Winterfeldt
所有的决策，无论是个人的、公共的还是与商业有关的，都是基于决策者的信念和价值观。科学可以而且应该通过塑造决策者的信念来帮助他们。不幸的是，决策者不容易获得科学，科学家往往不了解决策者的信息需求。本文提出了一个弥合科学与决策之间差距的框架，并用两个例子加以说明。第一个例子是个人健康决定。它显示了信仰和价值观的正式表示如何反映医生的科学输入，以联合收割机与决策者所持的价值观结合起来，为医疗选择提供信息。第二个例子是关于管理潜在环境危害的公共政策决定。它说明了有争议的信念如何被反映为不确定性，并通过科学来做出更好的决策。这两个例子都使用决策分析来连接科学和决策。结论表明，这可能是一个有用的过程，需要科学和决策技能。
All decisions, whether they are personal, public, or business-related, are based on the decision maker’s beliefs and values. Science can and should help decision makers by shaping their beliefs. Unfortunately, science is not easily accessible to decision makers, and scientists often do not understand decision makers’ information needs. This article presents a framework for bridging the gap between science and decision making and illustrates it with two examples. The first example is a personal health decision. It shows how a formal representation of the beliefs and values can reflect scientific inputs by a physician to combine with the values held by the decision maker to inform a medical choice. The second example is a public policy decision about managing a potential environmental hazard. It illustrates how controversial beliefs can be reflected as uncertainties and informed by science to make better decisions. Both examples use decision analysis to bridge science and decisions. The conclusions suggest that this can be a helpful process that requires skills in both science and decision making.