The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines
The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines
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DOI：
10.1111/2041-210x.12387
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Koedam, Nico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mukherjee, Nibedita;Huge, Jean;Koedam, Nico
1.许多科学领域，包括养护和环境管理，经常需要让利益攸关方或专家参与，以达成共识或提供技术投入。德尔菲技术是一种迭代和匿名的参与式方法，用于收集和评估这种基于专家的知识.我们概述了德尔菲技术的方法，并提供了其主要变种的分类。此外，我们通过提供解决常见限制（例如时间消耗，损耗率）的建议来改进该技术，以使该方法更适合于生态和保护方面的应用。一个全面的搜索研究，应用德尔菲技术在保护和环境管理，导致36篇论文。德尔菲技术已被应用于一系列问题，包括开发决策支持系统和预测气候变化的生态影响。所审查的文件表明，德尔菲技术是一种有效、包容、系统和结构化的方法，可用于解决复杂的问题。与其他基于群体的技术相比，一个主要的优势是减少了社会压力对受访者的影响。相对而言，德尔菲技术很少使用，而且似乎被低估了。鉴于其广泛的可能应用，它可以更广泛地应用于评估证据和提供专家判断。
1. Many areas of science, including conservation and environmental management, regularly require engaging stakeholders or experts to produce consensus or technical inputs. The Delphi technique is an iterative and anonymous participatory method used for gathering and evaluating such expert-based knowledge.2. We outline the methodology of the Delphi technique and provide a taxonomy of its main variants. In addition, we refine the technique by providing suggestions to address common limitations (e.g. time consumption, attrition rate) in order to make the method more suitable for application in ecology and conservation.3. A comprehensive search for studies that have applied the Delphi technique in conservation and environmental management resulted in 36 papers. The Delphi technique has been applied to a range of issues, including developing decision support systems and predicting ecological impacts of climate change.4. The papers reviewed suggest that the Delphi technique is an efficient, inclusive, systematic and structured approach that can be used to address complex issues. A major strength compared to other group-based techniques is the reduced influence of social pressures among respondents.5. The Delphi technique is relatively little used and seems undervalued. Given its wide range of possible applications, it could be applied more widely in evaluating evidence and providing expert judgments.