Excess Mortality Associated With Influenza A and B Virus in Hong Kong, 1998-2009
Excess Mortality Associated With Influenza A and B Virus in Hong Kong, 1998-2009
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jis628
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发表时间：
2012-12-15
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu, Peng;Goldstein, Edward;Cowling, Benjamin J.
背景虽然与实验室确认的流感病毒感染相关的死亡是罕见的，但从统计模型估计的流感的额外死亡负担可能更可靠地量化流感在人群中的影响。我们应用年龄别多元线性回归模型分析1998年至2009年香港的全因和死因别死亡率。在存在或不存在记录的流感活动的情况下，估计死亡率之间的差异被用来估计流感相关的超额死亡率。每年流感相关的全因超额死亡率为11.1（95%置信区间[CI]，7.2-14.6）/10万人年。我们估计，从1998年到2009年，每年平均有751例（95%CI，488-990）与流感相关的额外死亡，其中95%的额外死亡发生在≥ 65岁的人群中。大多数流感相关的超额死亡是由呼吸道（53%）和心血管（18%）原因引起的。在研究期间，甲型流感（H3 N2）流行比甲型流感（H1N1）或B流感与更多的额外死亡相关。过去10年，香港每年因流感而死亡的人数，主要是长者。香港和美国的流感相关超额死亡率大致相似。
Background. Although deaths associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections are rare, the excess mortality burden of influenza estimated from statistical models may more reliably quantify the impact of influenza in a population.Methods. We applied age-specific multiple linear regression models to all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Hong Kong from 1998 through 2009. The differences between estimated mortality rates in the presence or absence of recorded influenza activity were used to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality.Results. The annual influenza-associated all-cause excess mortality rate was 11.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2-14.6) per 100 000 person-years. We estimated an average of 751 (95% CI, 488-990) excess deaths associated with influenza annually from 1998 through 2009, with 95% of the excess deaths occurring in persons aged >= 65 years. Most of the influenza-associated excess deaths were from respiratory (53%) and cardiovascular (18%) causes. Influenza A(H3N2) epidemics were associated with more excess deaths than influenza A(H1N1) or B during the study period.Conclusions. Influenza was associated with a substantial number of excess deaths each year, mainly among the elderly, in Hong Kong in the past decade. The influenza-associated excess mortality rates were generally similar in Hong Kong and the United States.