Determinants of Inflation in the Euro Area: The Role of Labor and Product Market Institutions
Determinants of Inflation in the Euro Area: The Role of Labor and Product Market Institutions
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欧元区通胀的决定因素：劳动力和产品市场机构的作用
DOI：
10.5089/9781463933807.001
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Florence Jaumotte
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hanan Morsy;Florence Jaumotte
虽然货币联盟中的通胀差异可能是良性的，反映了一个追赶过程，或对不对称冲击或不同商业周期的调整机制，但它们也可能表明与国内产品和劳动力市场效率低下有关的扭曲，这些扭曲放大了冲击对通胀的影响或使其更加持久。本文研究了欧元区通货膨胀差异的决定因素，重点是国家特定的劳动力和产品市场制度的作用。分析使用传统的向后看的菲利普斯曲线方程，并增加它来探讨集体谈判制度，工会密度，就业保护和产品市场监管的作用。该模型是在1983-2007年期间10个欧元区国家的面板数据集上估计的。结果表明，高就业保护，中间协调的集体谈判，工会密度高增加通货膨胀的持续性。当集体谈判的协调程度处于中等水平时，石油和原材料价格冲击也更有可能通过工资上涨来应对。这些结果对不同的估计方法、模型规格和离群值具有稳健性。这篇论文认为，改革劳动力市场制度可能会通过降低持续通胀差异的风险来改善欧元区的运作。
While inflation differentials in a monetary union can be benign, reflecting a catch-up process, or an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks or different business cycles, they may also indicate distortions related to inefficiencies in domestic product and labor markets that amplify or make more persistent the impact of shocks on inflation. The paper examines the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, with emphasis on the role of country specific labor and product market institutions. The analysis uses a traditional backward-looking Phillips curve equation and augments it to explore the role of collective bargaining systems, union density, employment protection, and product market regulation. The model is estimated over a panel dataset of 10 euro area countries over the period 1983-2007. Results show that high employment protection, intermediate coordination of collective bargaining, and high union density increase the persistence of inflation. Oil and raw materials price shocks are also more likely to be accommodated by wage increases when the degree of coordination in collective bargaining is intermediate. These results are robust to different estimation methods, model specifications, and outliers. The paper suggests that reforming labor market institutions may improve the functioning of the euro area by reducing the risk of persistent inflation differentials.