Climate Change and Mountaintop-Removal Mining: A MaxEnt Assessment of the Potential Threat to West Virginian Fishes
Climate Change and Mountaintop-Removal Mining: A MaxEnt Assessment of the Potential Threat to West Virginian Fishes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1656/045.026.0304
复制
发表时间：
2019-07
影响因子：
0.4
通讯作者：
Lindsey R.F. Hendrick;Daniel J. McGarvey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lindsey R.F. Hendrick;Daniel J. McGarvey
摘要 关于物种分布范围因气候变化而发生变化的报道正在迅速积累。这些范围变化通常归因于物种随着其原生范围内的温度升高而跟踪其热生态位。我们的目标是估计气候变化导致的水温变化可能会在多大程度上增加西弗吉尼亚州本土淡水鱼遭受山顶拆除露天煤矿开采的风险。我们结合物理栖息地、历史气候条件和未来气候数据，通过最大熵物种分布模型，预测了 9 种非猎用西弗吉尼亚鱼类栖息地适宜性的本世纪中叶变化。高排放情景（代表性浓度路径 8.5）的建模预测预测，9 个物种中的 8 个物种在山顶采矿点附近的高海拔溪流中的栖息地适宜性将增加，栖息地适宜性增加从 46% 到 418% 不等。我们的结论是，如果气候变化继续快速发生，许多西弗吉尼亚州的鱼类将面临更多的山顶采矿风险。
Abstract Accounts of species' range shifts in response to climate change are rapidly accumulating. These range shifts are often attributed to species tracking their thermal niches as temperatures in their native ranges increase. Our objective was to estimate the degree to which shifts in water temperature driven by climate change may increase the exposure of West Virginia's native freshwater fishes to mountaintop-removal surface coal mining. We projected midcentury shifts in habitat suitability for 9 non-game West Virginian fishes via maximum entropy species distribution modeling, using a combination of physical habitat, historical climate conditions, and future climate data. Modeling projections for a high-emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) predict that habitat suitability will increase in high-elevation streams near mountaintop mining sites for 8 of 9 species, with increases in habitat suitability varying from 46% to 418%. We conclude that many West Virginian fishes will be at risk of increased exposure to mountaintop mining if climate change continues at a rapid pace.