Subregional precipitation climate of the Caribbean and relationships with ENSO and NAO
Subregional precipitation climate of the Caribbean and relationships with ENSO and NAO
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DOI：
10.1029/2006jd007541
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发表时间：
2007-08-25
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Winter, Amos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jury, Mark;Malmgren, Bjorn A.;Winter, Amos
对加勒比地区（古巴、巴哈马、牙买加、多米尼加共和国、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛、圣马丁和巴巴多斯）35个气象站在1951 - 1981年期间进行了分析，以评估区域降水模式及其与北大西洋涛动（NAO）和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的关系。应用因子分析这些系列揭示了存在四个地理上不同的降水区域，（C1）古巴西部和巴哈马西北部，（C2）牙买加，古巴东部和巴哈马东南部，（C3）多米尼加共和国和西北部波多黎各，和（C4）东部波多黎各，美属维尔京群岛，圣马丁岛，巴巴多斯。这种区域化与降水的不同年周期和年际波动有关。年周期在加勒比海西北部（C1）更为单峰，最大，并如预期的那样朝着低纬度（C4）变得越来越双峰。降水量的年际变化与两个著名的气候指标进行了比较。ENSO的关系，表示为Nino 3.4海表温度（SST），是积极的和稳定的所有滞后，但往往扭转加勒比东南部（C4）在夏末。北大西洋涛动的影响是弱的和季节性的依赖。加勒比海西北部（C1）初夏的降雨量在厄尔尼诺条件下增加。第2组和第3组受全球预测因子的影响较小，区域性较强。
Thirty-five meteorological stations encompassing the Caribbean region ( Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados) were analyzed over the time interval 1951 - 1981 to assess regional precipitation patterns and their relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Application of factor analysis to these series revealed the existence of four geographically distinct precipitation regions, (C1) western Cuba and northwestern Bahamas, (C2) Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas, (C3) Dominican Republic and northwestern Puerto Rico, and (C4) eastern Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados. This regionalization is related to different annual cycles and interannual fluctuations of rainfall. The annual cycle is more unimodal and largest in the northwest Caribbean ( C1) and becomes increasingly bimodal toward lower latitudes ( C4) as expected. Year-to-year variations of precipitation are compared with two well-known climatic indices. The ENSO relationship, represented by Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures (SST), is positive and stable at all lags, but tends to reverse over the SE Caribbean ( C4) in late summer. The NAO influence is weak and seasonally dependent. Early summer rainfall in the northwest Caribbean (C1) increases under El Nino conditions. Clusters 2 and 3 are less influenced by the global predictors and more regional in character.