The global carbon budget 1959-2011
The global carbon budget 1959-2011
复制标题
DOI：
10.5194/essd-5-165-2013
复制
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Zeng, N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le Quere, C.;Andres, R. J.;Zeng, N.
准确评估人为二氧化碳（CO2）排放及其在大气、海洋和陆地生物圈中的再分配，对于更好地了解全球碳循环、支持气候政策进程和预测未来气候变化具有重要意义。目前的分析需要将一系列数据、算法、统计和模型估计结合起来，并由广泛的科学界对其进行解释。在这里，我们描述了由全球碳循环科学界开发的数据集和方法，用于量化全球碳预算的所有主要组成部分，包括它们的不确定性。我们讨论了与以前的估计相比的变化，组件内部和组件之间的一致性，以及方法和数据限制。化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产（E-FF）产生的二氧化碳排放基于能源统计数据，而包括毁林在内的土地利用变化（E-LUC）产生的排放基于土地覆盖变化数据、毁林地区的火灾活动和模型的综合证据。直接测量全球大气CO2浓度，并根据浓度计算其增长率（G(ATM)）。平均海洋二氧化碳汇（S-OCEAN）是基于1990年代的观测，而年度异常和趋势是用海洋模式估计的。最后，通过其他项的差值估算全球陆地剩余CO2汇（S-LAND）。在过去十年（2002-2011）中，E-FF为8.3 +/- 0.4 PgC年（-1），E-LUC为1.0 +/- 0.5 PgC年（-1），GATM为4.3 +/- 0.1 PgC年（-1），S-OCEAN为2.5 +/- 0.5 PgC年（-1），S-LAND为2.6 +/- 0.8 PgC年（-1）。仅2011年，E-FF为9.5 +/- 0.5 PgC年（-1），比2010年高出3.0%，反映了这些排放的持续趋势；E-LUC为0.9 +/- 0.5 PgC年（-1），在整个十年中基本不变；G（ATM）为3.6 +/- 0.2 PgC年（-1），S-OCEAN为2.7 +/- 0.5 PgC年（-1），S-LAND为4.1 +/- 0.9 PgC年（-1）。与2002-2011年的平均值相比，2011年的G（ATM）较低，这可能是由于陆地对与太平洋拉尼娜条件相关的自然气候变率的高吸收。2011年底，全球大气CO2浓度达到391.31 +/- 0.13 ppm。根据对世界生产总值的预测和近期经济碳强度的变化，我们估计2012年E-FF将增长2.6%（1.9- 3.5%）。所有不确定性以+/- 1 σ（68%置信度，假设高斯误差分布，实际值在给定区间内）的形式报告，反映了目前表征全球碳预算各组成部分年度估计的能力。本文旨在提供一个基线，以跟踪未来的年度碳预算。本文所有数据均可从二氧化碳信息分析中心（doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2013）下载。
Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (E-LUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002-2011), E-FF was 8.3 +/- 0.4 PgCyr(-1), E-LUC 1.0 +/- 0.5 PgC yr(-1), GATM 4.3 +/- 0.1 PgC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.5 +/- 0.5 PgC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.6 +/- 0.8 PgC yr(-1). For year 2011 alone, E-FF was 9.5 +/- 0.5 PgC yr(-1), 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 PgC yr(-1), approximately constant throughout the decade; G(ATM) was 3.6 +/- 0.2 PgC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.7 +/- 0.5 PgC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 4.1 +/- 0.9 PgC yr(-1). G(ATM) was low in 2011 compared to the 2002-2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 +/- 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that E-FF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9-3.5 %) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2013).