Exploring the effect of urbanization on hourly extreme rainfall over Yangtze River Delta of China
Exploring the effect of urbanization on hourly extreme rainfall over Yangtze River Delta of China
复制标题
探讨城市化对中国长江三角洲每小时极端降雨的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100781
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发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Youpeng Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jie Wang;Fei Chen;Quang-Van Doan;Youpeng Xu
短期极端降雨事件（ERE）往往会造成城市洪水，并导致生命和财产损失。利用2001 - 2018年5 - 10月长江三角洲地区3种高时空分辨率降水产品，分析了长江三角洲地区逐时EREs。为了量化EREs和环境因素（如城市化，气候变化和地形）之间的可能联系，Hovmoller图和广义加性模型的位置，规模和形状（GAMLSS）非平稳模型。结果表明，受地形抬升的影响，长江三峡西南山区的降水系统东移，形成强降水中心，城市化地区平原地区的降水系统东移增强，尤其是南京、常州和南通都市圈附近。在城市化地区的每小时极端降雨量的变化是高度相关的多变量ENSO指数（MEI），并显示出更大的幅度在城市比农村地区。在宁常通（NCN）城市地区，强ENSO引起的大尺度环流型使这一现象得到加强，而在沪杭甬（SHN）城市地区，这一现象有所减弱。对非定常GAMLSS的分析还表明，大尺度环流对小时极端降水的影响大于城市化，但在非定常情景下，城市地区的小时极端降水仍高于农村地区。这些结果表明，在长江三角洲观测到的气候变化和城市化的情况下，城市地区发生强降雨的频率更高。
Short-term extreme rainfall events (EREs) often produce urban flooding and result in the loss of life and property. In this study, three high spatial-temporal resolution precipitation products were used to analyze hourly EREs during May-October from 2001 to 2018 over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). To quantify the possible link between EREs and environmental factors (such as urbanization, climate change, and orography), the Hovmoller diagrams and Generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) nonstationary model were used. The results showed that the eastward propagating precipitation systems created a heavy rainfall center in the southwest mountainous of YRD due to orographic lifting, and enhanced in the plains over urbanized areas, especially in the vicinity of Nanjing, Changzhou, and Nantong metropolitan regions. The variability of hourly rainfall extreme in the urbanized regions is high correlated to the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and shows a greater magnitude in the urban than rural regions. This phenomenon was intensified by large-scale circulation patterns due to strong-ENSO over the Nanjing-Changzhou-Nantong (NCN) urban regions, but weakened over the Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo (SHN) urban regions. An analysis of nonstationary GAMLSS also suggests the large-scale circulation presents a greater impact on the hourly extreme rainfall than the urbanization, while the hourly rainfall extremes in the urban areas are still higher than that in rural regions under the nonstationary scenario. Those results suggest intense rainfall occurred more frequently in the urban region under observed climate change and urbanization in YRD.
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影响因子：
6.4
作者：
M. Ganeshan;R. Murtugudde;M. Imhoff
通讯作者：
M. Ganeshan;R. Murtugudde;M. Imhoff
DOI：
10.1198/tas.2003.s212
发表时间：
2003-02
期刊：
The American Statistician
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. D. Cook;S. Weisberg
通讯作者：
R. D. Cook;S. Weisberg
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
E. Ziegel
通讯作者：
E. Ziegel
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Daqing Yang;B. Ye;A. Shiklomanov
通讯作者：
Daqing Yang;B. Ye;A. Shiklomanov
DOI：
10.1002/wics.175
发表时间：
2011-08
期刊：
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics
影响因子：
--
作者：
John Neuhaus;Charles McCulloch
通讯作者：
John Neuhaus;Charles McCulloch