Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea
Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea
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DOI：
10.1016/j.marenvres.2015.11.005
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Serrao, Ester Alvares
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Assis, Jorge;Lucas, Ana Vaz;Serrao, Ester Alvares
全球气候变化正在改变世界范围内的物种分布。在后缘（较温暖的低纬度范围边缘），环境条件微小变化的后果可能会被放大，对物种范围产生巨大的负面影响。最近才引起关注的分布变化的一个主要结果是有可能降低种内多样性水平，从而降低物种面对新干扰的全球进化和适应能力。这对于海藻等低扩散海洋物种尤其重要，因为长期持续存在，海带通常在后方范围内保留高度且独特的遗传多样性，而范围在气候冰期/间冰期循环期间发生变化。利用生态位模型，我们（1）推断出影响冷温带海带、海带（Gunnerus）Foslie分布的主要环境力量，并且我们（2）预测过去的气候变化对塑造长期持续区域（即气候庇护所）的影响，考虑到长期不存在瓶颈和局部灭绝，该物种可能拥有更高的遗传多样性。我们进一步 (3) 使用不同的温室气体排放情景（RCP 2.6 和 RCP 8.5）评估了未来气候对 L. hyperborea 命运的影响。结果显示，伊比利亚西北部、爱尔兰西南部、英吉利海峡西边、法罗群岛和冰岛南部，这些地区在过去的极端气候期间可能一直存在到今天。对未来的所有预测都表明，该地区会向北部地区扩张，同时低纬度范围边缘的适宜栖息地也会大量丧失，从而推断出该地区将长期存在（例如，伊比利亚西北部）。这种模式在气候变化最严重的情况下（RCP 8.5）尤其明显，可能导致生物多样性重大丧失、生态系统功能变化以及全球 L. hyperborea 基因库的贫化。由于目前没有该物种的遗传基线，因此我们的结果可能代表了为保护和缓解策略提供信息的第一步。 (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L. hyperborea. Because no genetic baseline is currently available for this species, our results may represent a first step in informing conservation and mitigation strategies. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.