Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services
Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services
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DOI：
10.1007/s11625-018-0587-9
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发表时间：
2018-06
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
O. Saito;Chiho Kamiyama;Shizuka Hashimoto;T. Matsui;K. Shoyama;Kei Kabaya;Tomoko Uetake;Hisatomo Taki-Hi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Saito;Chiho Kamiyama;Shizuka Hashimoto;T. Matsui;K. Shoyama;Kei Kabaya;Tomoko Uetake;Hisatomo Taki-Hi
尽管生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间平台揭示了情景的发展对于帮助决策者确定不同政策选择的潜在影响至关重要，但亚洲缺乏关于情景方法的研究报告。通过15个研究机构和100多名研究人员的参与，制定了一个新的5年研究项目（PANCES），利用综合社会-生态系统方法预测和评估日本的自然资本和生态系统服务。PANCES利用气候变化、人口减少、超老龄化、全球化和技术创新等主要直接和间接驱动因素，制定了国家尺度的未来情景，以探索到2050年自然资本和生态系统服务以及人类福祉的潜在变化。采用德尔菲法生成决定不同未来路径的关键驱动因素。基于德尔菲调查确定的情景轴的两个驱动因素以及与项目成员和政策制定者的广泛讨论，我们创建了四个未来情景，分别是“基于自然资本的紧凑型社会”、“基于自然资本的分散社会”、“基于生产资本的紧凑型社会”和“基于生产资本的分散社会”。本研究描述了一种新的方法，通过定性的故事情节和日本发达情景的视觉说明，共同设计国家规模的未来情景。
Although the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has revealed that the development of scenarios is crucial for helping decision makers identify the potential impact of different policy options, there is a lack of reported scenario approach studies in Asia. A new 5-year research project (PANCES) has been developed for predicting and assessing the natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan using an integrated social–ecological system approach via the participation of 15 research institutions and more than 100 researchers. PANCES conducts the development of national-scale future scenarios for exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services, as well as human well-being, up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers including climate change, depopulation, and super-aging, as well as globalization and technological innovation. The Delphi method is employed to generate key drivers that determine different future pathways. Based on the two drivers for scenario axes identified by the Delphi survey and extensive discussion with project members and policy makers, four future scenarios are created, “Natural capital-based compact society”, “Natural capital-based dispersed society”, “Produced capital-based compact society”, and “Produced capital-based dispersed society”, respectively, in addition to the business-as-usual scenario. This study describes a novel approach for collectively designing national-scale future scenarios with qualitative storylines and a visual illustration of the developed scenarios in Japan.