Level of underreporting including underdiagnosis before the first peak of COVID-19 in various countries: Preliminary retrospective results based on wavelets and deterministic modeling
Level of underreporting including underdiagnosis before the first peak of COVID-19 in various countries: Preliminary retrospective results based on wavelets and deterministic modeling
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DOI：
10.1017/ice.2020.116
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Rao, Arni S. R. Srinivasa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Krantz, Steven G.;Rao, Arni S. R. Srinivasa
我们估计了截至2020年3月9日，各国的新型冠状病毒或COVID-19的漏报情况，直到截至2020年3月9日，每个报告COVID-19病例≥500例的国家出现第一个高峰。我们基于回顾性模型对漏报（包括因漏诊造成的漏报）的估计将有助于评估大流行防范情况。提供了截至2020年3月9日报告病例≥500例的8个主要国家的COVID-19报告病例与基于模型的COVID-19预测的比率（表1，第1列）。法国、德国、意大利和韩国的新冠肺炎报告情况相对好于其他国家。对于美国来说，截至2020年3月9日的数据不足以提供一个可靠的估计。根据世界卫生组织2020年3月9日发布的《形势报告49》1，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例10.9万例，死亡病例3800例。其中大多数病例（约80,700例）来自中国和其他8个国家：意大利、韩国、伊朗、法国、德国、西班牙、美国和日本。所有这些国家都报告了500例以上的COVID-19确诊病例。然而，在控制医院和急诊科的高流量方面，识别可能的COVID-19病例可以说更为重要。3 .早期的COVID-19模型确实反映了数据收集的重要性。实际的大流行防范取决于人群中的真实病例，无论是否发现。防止这些真实病例向易感人群传播取决于我们能否及时评估漏报和漏诊情况。对数据进行回顾性分析将对下一次流行病有用，但对当前流行病无效。因此，我们建议使用我们近年来开发的方法，在几周内提供基于模型的COVID-19漏报估计数。我们正在开发的利用谐波分析和小波的新方法——其中一些最近被接受——将会及时使用。我们提出了一种基于模型的评估方法，用于评估不同国家的冠状病毒（COVID-19）漏报情况
We estimated the underreporting of the novel coronavirus or COVID-19 as of March 9, 2020, in various countries until the first peak occurred in each country that had reported≥ 500 cases of COVID-19 as of March 9, 2020. Our retrospective model-based estimations of underreporting (including those due to underdiagnosis) will be helpful in assessing pandemic preparedness. The ratio of reported COVID-19 cases to model-based predictions of COVID-19 for 8 major countries that had reported≥ 500 cases up to March 9, 2020, are provided (Table 1, column l). COVID-19 reporting in France, Germany, Italy, and South Korea was comparatively much better than in other countries. For the United States, the data as of March 9, 2020, were not sufficient to provide a robust estimate.According to Situational Report 49, released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 9, 2020, 1 there had been 109,000 cases of COVID-19 and 3,800 related deaths worldwide. Most of these cases (~ 80,700) were from China and 8 other countries: Italy, South Korea, Iran, France, Germany, Spain, the United States, and Japan. All of these countries have reported≥ 500 confirmed cases of COVID-19. 1, 2 However, identification of possible cases of COVID-19 is arguably more important in controlling high traffic to hospitals and emergency departments. 3 Earlier models on COVID-19 did reflect the importance of data collection. 4 Actual pandemic preparedness depends on true cases in the population, whether or not they are identified. Preventing transmission to the susceptible from these true cases depends on how well we can assess underreported and underdiagnosed situations promptly. A retrospective analysis of the data will be useful for the next epidemic but not for the current epidemic. Hence, we are proposing to use our methods, which we have been developing in recent years, to provide model-based estimates of underreporting for COVID-19 within a few weeks. New methods using harmonic analysis and wavelets that we are developing—some of them recently accepted—will be of timely use. 5 We propose a model-based evaluation of underreporting of coronavirus (COVID-19) in various countries using