Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long-term observational study and a manipulative field experiment
Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long-term observational study and a manipulative field experiment
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DOI：
10.1111/nph.15029
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.4
通讯作者：
Anderson, Jill T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wadgymar, Susana M.;Ogilvie, Jane E.;Anderson, Jill T.
气候变化引起了植物生殖物候的显著变化，但我们对哪些环境因素导致了种间反应的变化及其对适合度的影响知之甚少。本文综合了美国科罗拉多州亚高山草甸6种植物43年的首次开花记录和对同一地点多年生草本植物布切拉（Boechera stricta） 3年的积雪操纵实验数据。我们分析了与已知影响物候的环境驱动因素有关的开花开始的变化：融雪的时间、生长日数的积累和光周期。对气候变化的响应差异取决于物种开花的顺序，与开花较晚的物种相比，开花较早的物种繁殖速度更快，热量总和更低，光照周期也越来越不同。早期除雪处理证实，融雪时间支配着观察到的开花物候趋势，气候变化可以降低开花概率，从而降低适合度。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化正在使光周期和温度的历史组合脱钩，并超过了我们焦点物种的物候变化。准确预测生物对气候变化的反应需要对驱动物候变化的因素有透彻的了解。
Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, yet we know little about which environmental factors contribute to interspecific variation in responses and their effects on fitness. We integrate data from a 43yr record of first flowering for six species in subalpine Colorado meadows with a 3yr snow manipulation experiment on the perennial forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. Variation in responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species reproducing faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods relative to later-flowering species. Early snow-removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B.stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Our findings suggest that climate change is decoupling historical combinations of photoperiod and temperature and outpacing phenological changes for our focal species. Accurate predictions of biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the factors driving shifts in phenology.