Predicting regional variations in mortality from motor vehicle crashes
Predicting regional variations in mortality from motor vehicle crashes
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1553-2712.1999.tb01050.x
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发表时间：
1999-02-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Cushing, BM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clark, DE;Cushing, BM
目的：表明先前观察到的人口密度与机动车事故人均死亡率之间的反比关系可以从可用于预测的简单数学模型中推导出来。方法：作者提出了模型，其中一个地区的致命车祸数量与人口以及医院之间的平均距离的某些幂成正比。或者，这些可以参数化为威布尔生存模型。作者利用美国人口普查的县和州数据，在对数尺度上拟合线性回归方程，以测试这些模型的有效性。结果：南部各州遵循与其他州不同的模式。如果使用指示变量来区分这些群体，则生成的模型可以解释各州之间差异的 74%（阿拉斯加除外）。在控制平均医院间距离后，南部各州的人均死亡率是其他州的 1.37 倍。结论：只要知道一个地区医院之间的平均距离，就可以相当准确地估计该地区因车祸造成的人均死亡率。控制这一因素后，南部各州的人均车祸死亡率较高，原因尚待解释。
Objective: To show that the previously-observed inverse relationship between population density and per-capita mortality from motor vehicle crashes can be derived from a simple mathematical model that can be used for prediction. Methods: The authors proposed models in which the number of fatal crashes in an area was directly proportional to the population and also to some power of the mean distance between hospitals. Alternatively, these can be parameterized as Weibull survival models. Using county and state data from the U.S. Census, the authors fitted linear regression equations on a logarithmic scale to test the validity of these models. Results: The southern states conformed to a different model from the other states. If an indicator variable was used to distinguish these groups, the resulting model accounted for 74% of the variation from state to state (Alaska excepted). After controlling for mean interhospital distance, the southern states had a per-capita mortality 1.37 times that of the other states. Conclusions: Simply knowing the mean distance between hospitals in a region allows a fairly accurate estimate of its per-capita mortality from vehicle crashes. After controlling for this factor, vehicle crash mortality per capita is higher in the southern states, for reasons yet to be explained.