Using Subjective Income Expectations to Test for Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Predicted Income Growth
Using Subjective Income Expectations to Test for Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Predicted Income Growth
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使用主观收入预期来检验消费对预测收入增长的过度敏感性
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.143052
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Luigi Pistaferri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Jappelli;Luigi Pistaferri
我们测试的过度敏感性的消费预测收入增长使用1989-93年的面板调查意大利家庭，包括主观收入和通货膨胀预期的措施。这些预期为预测收入增长提供了有力的工具。控制消费增长的预期方差和劳动力供给的可预测变化，我们发现，家庭消费增长与预期的收入增长的头部是非常强的相关性。我们还发现大量的证据表明，过度敏感性是由于流动性约束。我们最强有力的结果是，在低资产家庭样本中，预期收入增加的系数为1，而预期收入下降的系数为0。
We test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth using a 1989–93 panel survey of Italian households that includes measures of subjective income and inflation expectations. These expectations provide a powerful instrument for predicting income growth. Controlling for the expected variance of consumption growth and for predictable changes in labour supply, we find that household consumption growth is very strongly correlated with predicted earnings growth of the head. We also find considerable evidence that excess sensitivity is due to liquidity constraints. Our strongest result is that in a sample of low-asset households the coefficient of expected income increases is one, while that of expected income declines is zero.