Continence Index: a new screening questionnaire to predict the probability of future incontinence in older women in the community.
Continence Index: a new screening questionnaire to predict the probability of future incontinence in older women in the community.
复制标题
失禁指数：一种新的筛查问卷，用于预测社区老年女性未来失禁的可能性。
DOI：
10.1007/s11255-015-1006-0
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Killinger,KimA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diokno,AnaniasC;Ogunyemi,Theophilus;Siadat,Mohammad-Reza;Arslanturk,Suzan;Killinger,KimA
尿失禁（UI）是一种慢性、昂贵的疾病，影响生活质量。为了确定老年妇女的风险最大，医疗流行病学和社会方面的老龄化（梅萨）数据集进行挖掘，以创建一组问题，可以可靠地预测未来的UI.MethodsMESA数据收集在四个家庭访谈约1年的时间间隔。使用逻辑回归（构建数据集）确定与第二次访谈（HH2）时失禁相关的因素。根据p值和比值比，8个潜在的预测因素及其256个组合和相应的预测概率形成了大陆指数。在第四次调查（HH4验证数据集）中，针对同一队列的结果测试了其预测和区分能力。敏感性分析，受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下的面积，预测概率和置信区间被用来统计学验证的Continence Index.ResultsBody mass index，打喷嚏，产后UI，排尿频率，轻度UI，在未来发展UI的信念，困难停止尿流和记住的名字出现UI的最强预测。预测概率的置信区间在构建和验证数据集之间非常一致。计算的敏感性、特异性、假阳性和假阴性值显示，ROC下的面积（0.802和0.799）分别用于构建和验证数据集，表明良好的歧视能力的指数作为predictor.ConclusionThe尿失禁指数将有助于确定老年妇女的UI的风险最大，以适用于有针对性的预防策略，最有可能受益的妇女。
PurposeUrinary incontinence (UI) is a chronic, costly condition that impairs quality of life. To identify older women most at risk, the Medical Epidemiologic and Social Aspects of Aging (MESA) datasets were mined to create a set of questions that can reliably predict future UI.MethodsMESA data were collected during four household interviews at approximately 1 year intervals. Factors associated with becoming incontinent at the second interview (HH2) were identified using logistic regression (construction datasets). Based onpvalues and odds ratios, eight potential predictive factors with their 256 combinations and corresponding prediction probabilities formed the Continence Index. Its predictive and discriminatory capability was tested against the same cohort’s outcome in the fourth survey (HH4 validation datasets). Sensitivity analysis, area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, predicted probabilities and confidence intervals were used to statistically validate the Continence Index.ResultsBody mass index, sneezing, post-partum UI, urinary frequency, mild UI, belief of developing UI in the future, difficulty stopping urinary stream and remembering names emerged as the strongest predictors of UI. The confidence intervals for prediction probabilities strongly agreed between construction and validation datasets. Calculated sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative values revealed that the areas under the ROCs (0.802 and 0.799) for the construction and validation datasets, respectively, indicated good discriminatory capabilities of the index as a predictor.ConclusionThe Continence Index will help identify older women most at risk of UI in order to apply targeted prevention strategies in women that are most likely to benefit.