The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020.
The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020.
复制标题
英格兰癌症的未来负担：2020年的发病率和新患者人数。
DOI：
10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746
复制
发表时间：
2007-05-07
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Bray, F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Moller, H;Fairley, L;Coupland, V;Okello, C;Green, M;Forman, D;Moller, B;Bray, F
我们使用1974-2003年的癌症登记数据和英国国家统计局2023年之前的官方人口预测，估计了到2020年英国未来的癌症发病率和癌症病例数。使用为北欧国家开发的年龄-时期-队列模型对数据进行分析。我们预测，到2020年，所有癌症的年龄标准化发病率的变化相对较小。然而，英国每年的新癌症病例数预计将增加33%，从2001年的22.4万例增加到2020年的29.9万例。这一增加主要是由于人口增长和老龄化的预期影响；到2020年，癌症患者的年龄将超过目前的癌症人口。
We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974–2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224 000 in 2001 to 299 000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.