The global spread of 2019-nCoV: a molecular evolutionary analysis
The global spread of 2019-nCoV: a molecular evolutionary analysis
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DOI：
10.1080/20477724.2020.1725339
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发表时间：
2020-02-12
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Ciccozzi, Massimo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Benvenuto, Domenico;Giovanetti, Marta;Ciccozzi, Massimo
正如世卫组织将风险评估上调至高级别所表明的那样，2019-nCoV的全球传播仍在继续，并在快速传播。在这篇文章中，我们对这种新病毒进行了初步的系统动力学和系统地理分析。使用2019-nCoV的29个可用全基因组序列和GeneBank中提供的两个与BAT类SARS冠状病毒高度相似的全基因组序列构建了最大可信度树。我们能够澄清提供患者2019-nCoV序列分离株的国家之间的传播机制。贝叶斯系统地理重建表明，2019-2020年nCoV最有可能起源于蝙蝠家族中流行的蝙蝠类SARS冠状病毒。与流行病学观察一致，新疫情最有可能的地理来源是武汉中国，根据分子钟分析，2019年11月25日左右，最新的共同祖先的2019年-NCoV时间出现在那里。这些结果与以前记录的疫情一起表明，由贝塔冠状病毒引起的周期性动物流行病暴发模式反复出现。此外，我们的研究描述了2003年SARS疫情背后的相同种群遗传动态，并表明迫切需要开发有效的动物和蝙蝠属菊头蝠之间的贝塔冠状病毒的分子监测策略。
The global spread of the 2019-nCoV is continuing and is fast moving, as indicated by the WHO raising the risk assessment to high. In this article, we provide a preliminary phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis of this new virus. A Maximum Clade Credibility tree has been built using the 29 available whole genome sequences of 2019-nCoV and two whole genome sequences that are highly similar sequences from Bat SARS-like Coronavirus available in GeneBank. We are able to clarify the mechanism of transmission among the countries which have provided the 2019-nCoV sequence isolates from their patients. The Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction shows that the 2019-2020 nCoV most probably originated from the Bat SARS-like Coronavirus circulating in the Rhinolophus bat family. In agreement with epidemiological observations, the most likely geographic origin of the new outbreak was the city of Wuhan, China, where 2019-nCoV time of the most recent common ancestor emerged, according to molecular clock analysis, around November 25(th), 2019. These results, together with previously recorded epidemics, suggest a recurring pattern of periodical epizootic outbreaks due to Betacoronavirus. Moreover, our study describes the same population genetic dynamic underlying the SARS 2003 epidemic, and suggests the urgent need for the development of effective molecular surveillance strategies of Betacoronavirus among animals and Rhinolophus of the bat family.