Prospects for biodiversity
Prospects for biodiversity
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1088666
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发表时间：
2003-11-14
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Jenkins, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenkins, M
假设人类行为没有根本性的转变，我们可以预期到2050年生物多样性和生态系统服务将发生重大变化。相当数量的物种灭绝将会发生。现有的大片热带森林将大大减少和支离破碎，但温带森林和一些热带森林的面积将保持稳定或增加，尽管后者在生物上将是贫乏的。海洋生态系统将与今天的大不相同，几乎没有大型海洋捕食者，淡水生物多样性将几乎无处不在。这些变化本身不会威胁到人类作为一个物种的生存。
Assuming no radical transformation in human behavior, we can expect important changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2050. A considerable number of species extinctions will have taken place. Existing large blocks of tropical forest will be much reduced and fragmented, but temperate forests and some tropical forests will be stable or increasing in area, although the latter will be biotically impoverished. Marine ecosystems will be very different from today's, with few large marine predators, and freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced almost everywhere. These changes will not, in themselves, threaten the survival of humans as a species.