Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia.
Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia.
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精确概率还是不精确概率？
DOI：
10.1093/jeea/jvab023
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Molinari,Francesca
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Giustinelli,Pamela;Manski,CharlesF;Molinari,Francesca
我们在美国健康和退休研究中得出了迟发性痴呆和长期护理（LTC）结果的数字期望。我们提供了第一个经验证据，无痴呆症的美国老年人之间的痴呆症风险的看法，并建立重要的模式，主观概率的不精确性。我们的启发区分精确和不精确的概率，同时考虑四舍五入的报告。不精确概率受访者使用概率区间来量化不精确性。近一半的受访者持有不精确的痴呆症和LTC概率，而近三分之一的精确概率受访者四舍五入。这些比例大幅下降时，LTC的期望条件假设知识的痴呆状态。在四舍五入和不精确的概率受访者，我们的启发产生两个措施：一个初始的四舍五入或近似的响应和后探测响应，我们解释为受访者的真实点或区间概率。我们研究了这两个指标之间的映射，发现受访者最初倾向于高估小概率，低估大概率。使用一个特定的框架研究的LTC保险选择与不确定的痴呆状态，我们说明了忽视不精确或四舍五入的概率建模和预测的保险需求的危险。
We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia and long-term-care (LTC) outcomes in the US Health and Retirement Study. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and establish important patterns regarding imprecision of subjective probabilities. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Imprecise-probability respondents quantify imprecision using probability intervals. Nearly half of respondents hold imprecise dementia and LTC probabilities, while almost a third of precise-probability respondents round their reports. These proportions decrease substantially when LTC expectations are conditioned on hypothetical knowledge of the dementia state. Among rounding and imprecise-probability respondents, our elicitation yields two measures: an initial rounded or approximated response and a post-probe response, which we interpret as the respondent's true point or interval probability. We study the mapping between the two measures and find that respondents initially tend to over-report small probabilities and under-report large probabilities. Using a specific framework for study of LTC insurance choice with uncertain dementia state, we illustrate the dangers of ignoring imprecise or rounded probabilities for modeling and prediction of insurance demand.