Choice of study area and predictors affect habitat suitability projections, but not the performance of species distribution models of stream biota
Choice of study area and predictors affect habitat suitability projections, but not the performance of species distribution models of stream biota
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.02.019
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发表时间：
2013-05-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Haase, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Domisch, Sami;Kuemmerlen, Mathias;Haase, Peter
提供物种栖息地适宜性外推的物种分布模型（SDMs）越来越多地用于河流生态系统，然而不同建模技术对模型预测的影响尚不清楚。通过对224种固定的大型无脊椎动物物种的共识预测和在BIOMOD/R中实现的五种算法，我们测试了不同的研究区域和预测因子如何影响SDMs。采用了四种建模设计：(1)将景观作为连续的研究区域，不区分陆地和水生领域；(2)将河流网络掩盖之前设计的后验；(3)在模型构建阶段将河流网络作为研究区域；(4)与(3)相同，但使用了一组水文校正的预测因子。真实技能统计量（TSS）和一致预测的准确性不受不同设计的影响（TSS范围为0.80 ~ 1.00，准确性范围为0.70 ~ 0.96）。与(1)（平均减少56%）、(2)（11%）或(3)（8%）相比，设计(4)的预测产生了假阳性预测的大幅减少。我们的研究结果表明，同样高精度的SDMs如何在底栖大型无脊椎动物的栖息地适宜性预测中存在很大差异。由于模型的性能和输出不一定一致，因此需要仔细评估河流生物群的生境适宜性预测。(C) 2013 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Species distribution models (SDMs) that provide extrapolations of species habitat suitability are increasingly being used in stream ecosystems, however the effects of different modelling techniques on model projections remain unknown. We tested how different study areas and predictors affect SDMs by using consensus projections of a fixed set of 224 stream macroinvertebrate species and five algorithms implemented in BIOMOD/R. Four modelling designs were applied: (1) a landscape as a continuous study area without any discrimination between terrestrial and aquatic realms, (2) a stream network masked a posteriori from the previous design, (3) a stream network as the study area during the model-building stage, and (4) same as (3) but with a hydrologically corrected set of predictors. The true skill statistic (TSS) and accuracy of the consensus projections were not influenced by the different designs (TSS ranged from 0.80 to 1.00, accuracy ranged from 0.70 to 0.96). The projections of design (4) yielded a strong reduction in false positive predictions compared to (1) (on average by 56%), (2) (11%) or (3) (8%). Our results show how SDMs with equally high accuracy may differ widely in habitat suitability projections for benthic macroinvertebrates. As model performance and output are not necessarily congruent, habitat suitability projections of stream biota need to be carefully assessed. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.