ELIMINATING UNCERTAINTY IN MARKET ACCESS: THE IMPACT OF NEW BRIDGES IN RURAL NICARAGUA
ELIMINATING UNCERTAINTY IN MARKET ACCESS: THE IMPACT OF NEW BRIDGES IN RURAL NICARAGUA
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DOI：
10.3982/ecta15828
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Donovan, Kevin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brooks, Wyatt;Donovan, Kevin
我们衡量农村村庄和外部劳动力市场之间日益融合的影响。季节性的暴洪造成市场准入的外部和不可预测的损失。我们研究消除这种风险的新桥梁的影响。识别利用了河岸特征的变化，尽管有类似的需求，但这些特征排除了一些村庄的桥梁建设。我们收集了三年来详细的年度家庭调查，每周电话随访，以研究洪水的同期影响。如果没有桥梁，洪水会使劳动力市场收入减少18%。桥梁消除了这种影响。对劳动力市场选择、农业投资和储蓄的间接影响在数量上是重要的，并且与一般均衡模型的预测一致，在一般均衡模型中，农业投资是有风险的，家庭同时管理劳动力市场风险和农业风险。在校准模型中，由于降低风险的能力，消费等价福利的增加远远大于收入的增加。
We measure the impact of increasing integration between rural villages and outside labor markets. Seasonal flash floods cause exogenous and unpredictable loss of market access. We study the impact of new bridges that eliminate this risk. Identification exploits variation in riverbank characteristics that preclude bridge construction in some villages, despite similar need. We collect detailed annual household surveys over three years, and weekly telephone followups to study contemporaneous effects of flooding. Floods decrease labor market income by 18 percent when no bridge is present. Bridges eliminate this effect. The indirect effects on labor market choice, farm investment, and savings are quantitatively important and consistent with the predictions of a general equilibrium model in which farm investment is risky, and households manage labor market risk and agricultural risk simultaneously. In the calibrated model, the increase in consumption-equivalent welfare is substantially larger than the increase in income due to the ability to mitigate risk.