Managing the risks of climate thresholds: uncertainties and information needs
Managing the risks of climate thresholds: uncertainties and information needs
复制标题
管理气候阈值的风险：不确定性和信息需求
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Schlesinger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Keller;G. Yohe;M. Schlesinger
人类活动正在推动大气中温室气体浓度超过以往文明所经历的水平。围绕着我们对导致气候变化的理解的不确定性，给管理相关风险的战略的设计和实施带来了不小的挑战。一个挑战源于这样一个事实，即cli-matesystemcanreactabruptlyandwithonlysubtlewarningsignsbeforeclimatethresholdshave被跨越(Stocker 1999；Alley等人)。2003年)。模型预测表明，人为温室气体排放增加了超过这些阈值的可能性(Cubasch和Meehl，2001；Yohe等人)。2006)。应对我们对气候阈值的机制、地点和影响的理解中的深刻不确定性是另一个挑战。当相关范围的系统模型及其参数的相关概率密度函数未知和/或当决策者对其公式存在强烈分歧时，就会出现深度不确定性(Lempert 2002)。此外，建立可行的观测和建模系统以提供对即将到来的阈值的预测和及时预测的要求主要是un-known.Thesechallengesputanewemphasisontheanalysis，设计、实施地球观测系统和管理潜在气候阈值反应风险的战略。
Human activities are driving atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations beyond levels ex-perienced by previous civilizations. The uncertainty surrounding our understanding of theresulting climate change poses nontrivial challenges for the design and implementation ofstrategies to manage the associated risks. One challenge stems from the fact that the cli-matesystemcanreactabruptlyandwithonlysubtlewarningsignsbeforeclimatethresholdshave been crossed (Stocker 1999; Alley et al. 2003). Model predictions suggest that an-thropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions increase the likelihood of crossing these thresholds(Cubasch and Meehl 2001; Yohe et al. 2006). Coping with deep uncertainty in our under-standing of the mechanisms, locations, and impacts of climate thresholds presents anotherchallenge. Deep uncertainty presents itself when the relevant range of systems models andthe associated probability density functions for their parameterizations are unknown and/orwhen decision-makers strongly disagree on their formulations (Lempert 2002). Further-more, the requirements for creating feasible observation and modeling systems that coulddeliver confident and timely prediction of impending threshold crossings are mostly un-known.Thesechallengesputanewemphasisontheanalysis,design,andimplementationofEarth observation systems and strategies to manage the risks of potential climate thresholdresponses.