Hydroclimatological variability and dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series study
Hydroclimatological variability and dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series study
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-12-98
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发表时间：
2012-04-24
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Yamamoto, Taro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hashizume, Masahiro;Dewan, Ashraf M.;Yamamoto, Taro
背景资料：虽然洪水可能会增加登革热的传播，但只有少数研究报告了登革热流行与洪水的关系。我们估计了河流水位和降雨量对孟加拉国达卡11家主要医院登革热住院人数的影响。方法：我们使用广义线性泊松回归模型对2005年至2009年登革热住院人数与河流水位的关系进行了时间序列分析，调整了季节、年间变化、公共假日和温度。结果：有强有力的证据表明，登革热在河流水位高的地方会增加。在0-5周的滞后期内，平均河流水位每超过阈值（3.9米）0.1米，住院率增加6.9%（95% CI：3.2，10.7）。相反，住院人数增加了29.6%（95%CI：19.8，40.2）为0.1米下降低于相同的阈值的平均河流水位超过滞后0-19 weeks.Conclusions：我们的研究结果提供的证据表明，与河流水位高和低的因素增加了登革热病例在达卡的住院。
Background: While floods can potentially increase the transmission of dengue, only few studies have reported the association of dengue epidemics with flooding. We estimated the effects of river levels and rainfall on the hospital admissions for dengue fever at 11 major hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh.Methods: We examined time-series of the number of hospital admissions of dengue fever in relation to river levels from 2005 to 2009 using generalized linear Poisson regression models adjusting for seasonal, between-year variation, public holidays and temperature.Results: There was strong evidence for an increase in dengue fever at high river levels. Hospitalisations increased by 6.9% (95% CI: 3.2, 10.7) for each 0.1 metre increase above a threshold (3.9 metres) for the average river level over lags of 0-5 weeks. Conversely, the number of hospitalisations increased by 29.6% (95% CI: 19.8, 40.2) for a 0.1 metre decrease below the same threshold of the average river level over lags of 0-19 weeks.Conclusions: Our findings provide evidence that factors associated with both high and low river levels increase the hospitalisations of dengue fever cases in Dhaka.