The Uneven Influence of Climate Trends and Agricultural Policies on Maize Production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico
The Uneven Influence of Climate Trends and Agricultural Policies on Maize Production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico
复制标题
气候趋势和农业政策对墨西哥尤卡坦半岛玉米生产的不均匀影响
DOI：
10.3390/land7030080
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Zachary Christman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sofía Mardero;B. Schmook;J. O. López;L. Cicero;Claudia Radel;Zachary Christman
玉米是墨西哥的一种重要主食作物，最近气候变化加剧，加上非气候因素，阻碍了产量的增加，特别是对小农来说。本文使用气候分析和半结构化访谈的混合方法，论证了这些驱动因素对尤卡坦半岛三个州玉米生产趋势的影响。利用1980-2010年降水和温度数据，气候趋势分析和广义加性模型（GAM）证明了产量和气候变率之间的关系。2015年和2016年对政府官员和农民协会代表进行的40次采访数据突出了农业政策对该地区玉米生产的影响。气候趋势分析得出的结果喜忧参半，金塔纳罗奥的降雨量呈统计上显著的负趋势，整个区域的最高气温变化存在变异性，尤卡坦州和金塔纳罗奥气温上升，坎佩切气温下降。气候和产量的GAM表明，坎佩切州（79%）和金塔纳罗奥（72%）的产量和气候波动之间存在显著的关系，尤卡坦州（31%）的产量和气候波动之间存在较弱的显著关系。报告者指出，降水量的变化和小农农业发展的公共政策无效是玉米生产的主要障碍，包括农业计划设计不当，农业支持不一致，农民组织效率低下。量化气候变化对玉米生产的影响，以及国家和区域农业政策对小农的放大影响，将为更适当的政策设计和执行提供信息。
Maize is an important staple crop in Mexico, and the recent intensification of climate variability, in combination with non-climatic forces, has hindered increases in production, especially for smallholder farmers. This article demonstrates the influence of these drivers on maize production trends in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula using a mixed methods approach of climatic analysis and semi-structured interviews. Climate trend analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs) demonstrate relationships between production and climatic variability, using 1980-2010 precipitation and temperature data. Data from forty interviews with government officials and representatives of farmers' associations (gathered in 2015 and 2016) highlight the influence of agricultural policy on maize production in the region. The climate trend analysis yielded mixed results, with a statistically significant negative rainfall trend for Quintana Roo and variability in maximum temperature changes across the region, with an increase in Yucatan State and Quintana Roo and a decrease in Campeche. Climate and production GAMs indicate a strong significant relationship between production and climate fluctuations for Campeche (79%) and Quintana Roo (72%) and a weaker significant relationship for the Yucatan State (31%). Informants identified precipitation variability and ineffective public policies for smallholder agricultural development as primary obstacles for maize production, including inadequate design of agricultural programs, inconsistent agricultural support, and ineffective farmers' organizations. Quantifying the influence of climate change on maize production, and the amplifying influence of national and regional agricultural policy for smallholder farmers, will inform more appropriate policy design and implementation.