An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Hydrogen Economy on Transportation, Energy Use, and Air Emissions
An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Hydrogen Economy on Transportation, Energy Use, and Air Emissions
复制标题
氢经济对交通、能源使用和空气排放影响的综合评估
作者：
S. Yeh;D. Loughlin;Carol Shay;C. Gage
本文分析了氢燃料电池汽车（H2-FCV）在美国轻型汽车（LDV）中的应用对整个系统潜在的能源和空气排放的影响。该分析使用美国环保署MARKet ALlocation（MARKAL）技术数据库和模型，同时考虑替代技术和燃料之间的竞争，重点是运输和电力部门。我们的模型参考案例表明，到2030年，仅凭经济学不会产生H2-FCV渗透率。参数敏感性分析表明，氢燃料电池汽车可以成为经济上可行的，通过降低氢燃料电池汽车的成本，增加竞争车辆技术的成本，并提高油价。导致H2-FCV渗透的替代方案显示出根据驱动H2-FCV渗透的条件导致非常不同的总系统能量使用模式。总体而言，该模型表明，总的CO2排放量的变化是复杂的，但CO2排放水平往往略有下降与H2-FCV渗透。虽然碳捕获和封存技术与氢气生产和可再生技术的氢气生产有可能实现更大的二氧化碳减排，这些技术在我们的建模时间范围内没有经济竞争力，没有额外的驱动因素
This paper presents an analysis of the potential system-wide energy and air emissions implications of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (H 2-FCV) penetration into the U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) fleet. The analysis uses the U.S. EPA MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) technology database and model to simultaneously consider competition among alternative technologies and fuels, with a focus on the transportation and the electric sectors. Our modeled reference case suggests that economics alone would not yield H2-FCV penetration by 2030. A parametric sensitivity analysis shows that H2-FCV can become economically viable through reductions in H 2-FCV costs, increases in the costs of competing vehicle technologies, and increases in oil prices. Alternative scenarios leading to H2-FCV penetration are shown to result in very different patterns of total system energy usage depending on the conditions driving H2-FCV penetration. Overall, the model suggests that total CO2 emissions changes are complex, but that CO2 emission levels tend to decrease slightly with H2-FCV penetration. While carbon capture and sequestration technologies with H 2 production and renewable technologies for H2 production have the potential to achieve greater CO2 reductions, these technologies are not economically competitive within our modeling time frame without additional drivers