Characterising performance of environmental models
Characterising performance of environmental models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.011
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Andreassian, Vazken
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bennett, Neil D.;Croke, Barry F. W.;Andreassian, Vazken
为了有效地利用环境模型进行管理和决策，至关重要的是要建立一个适当的信任度，他们的表现。本文综述了各个领域的技术，重点是数值，图形和定性方法表征环境模型的性能。一般类的直接值比较，耦合真实的和建模值，保持数据模式，间接度量参数值的基础上，和数据转换进行了讨论。在实践中，环境建模需要使用和实施结合了联合收割机几种方法的工作流程，这些工作流程根据建模目的定制，并取决于现有的数据和信息。提出了一个模型性能评价的五步程序，其关键要素包括：（一）（重新）评估模型的目的、规模和范围;（二）确定数据的特性，以供校准和测试;（三）进行视觉和其他分析，以发现模型不足或未建模的行为，并获得总体性能的概览;（四）选择基本性能标准;及（v）考虑采用更先进的方法，以处理模拟值与观测值之间的系统性差异等问题。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus on numerical, graphical and qualitative methods. General classes of direct value comparison, coupling real and modelled values, preserving data patterns, indirect metrics based on parameter values, and data transformations are discussed. In practice environmental modelling requires the use and implementation of workflows that combine several methods, tailored to the model purpose and dependent upon the data and information available. A five-step procedure for performance evaluation of models is suggested, with the key elements including: (i) (re)assessment of the model's aim, scale and scope; (ii) characterisation of the data for calibration and testing; (iii) visual and other analysis to detect under- or non-modelled behaviour and to gain an overview of overall performance; (iv) selection of basic performance criteria; and (v) consideration of more advanced methods to handle problems such as systematic divergence between modelled and observed values. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.