Potential changes in benthic macrofaunal distributions from the English Channel simulated under climate change scenarios
Potential changes in benthic macrofaunal distributions from the English Channel simulated under climate change scenarios
复制标题
气候变化情景下模拟英吉利海峡大型底栖动物分布的潜在变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecss.2011.12.026
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
J. Dauvin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Rombouts;G. Beaugrand;J. Dauvin
气候引起的物种分布变化可能会影响海洋生态系统的功能和多样性。因此，在经济和生态重要的地区，如英吉利海峡，迫切需要在不断变化的环境条件下预测关键物种的未来分布。生态位模型已成功地应用于根据物种(Sensu Hutchinson)的环境生态位信息确定物种的潜在分布。在这项研究中，两个商业开发的底栖物种Pecten max和Glycymeris Glycymeris，以及两个生态重要的物种Abra Alba和Ophelia borealis，利用四个当代水文变量，即海表面温度、海表面盐度、水深和沉积物类型，得到了它们的生态位。因此，使用这些生态包络，非参数概率生态位模型(NPPEN)被应用于计算东北大西洋每个物种的当代发生概率，并预测在气候变化情景A2下2050-2059和2090-2099两个时间段潜在的再分布。结果显示，四种底栖生物从英吉利海峡到北海和挪威南部海岸的总体北移。这些预测主要表明，适合底栖生物物种的栖息地减少，其在英吉利海峡的分布明显消失，但A.C.Alba除外。然而，对生态位模型的解释应谨慎对待，因为许多不确定性和假设一般都与生态位模型有关。此外，为底栖生物物种开辟潜在的栖息地并不一定意味着这些物种将来会真正占据这些地点。物种的迁移和定居的成功是许多其他非气候因素的作用，如物种生活史、扩散能力、适应性和群落相互作用。
Climate-induced changes in the distribution of species are likely to affect the functioning and diversity of marine ecosystems. Therefore, in economic and ecological important areas, such as the English Channel, projections of the future distributions of key species under changing environmental conditions are urgently needed. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have been applied successfully to determine potential distributions of species based on the information of the environmental niche of a species (sensu Hutchinson). In this study, the niches of two commercially exploited benthic species, Pecten maximus and Glycymeris glycymeris, and two ecologically important species, Abra alba and Ophelia borealis were derived using four contemporary hydrographic variables, i.e. sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, water depth and sediment type. Consequently, using these ecological envelopes, the Non-Parametric Probalistic Ecological Niche model (NPPEN) was applied to calculate contemporary probabilities of occurrence for each species in the North East Atlantic and to predict potential re-distributions under the climate change scenario A2 for two time periods 2050–2059 and 2090–2099. Results show general northern displacements of the four benthic species from the English Channel into the North Sea and southern Norwegian coast. The projections mostly indicate a reduction of suitable habitat for benthic species with a notable disappearance of their distributions in the English Channel, except for A. alba. However, interpretations should be treated with caution since many uncertainties and assumptions are attached to ecological niche models in general. Furthermore, opening up potential habitats for benthic species does not necessarily imply that the species will actually occupy these sites in the future. The displacement and colonisation success of species are a function of many other non-climatic factors such as species life histories, dispersal abilities, adaptability and community interactions.