Contrasting contributions to future sea level under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Contrasting contributions to future sea level under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
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格陵兰岛和南极冰盖 CMIP5 和 CMIP6 情景下对未来海平面的贡献对比
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Goelzer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Payne;S. Nowicki;H. Goelzer
<p>格陵兰和南极冰盖对海平面的贡献预测依赖于从气候模型中获得的大气和海洋驱动因素。 参与耦合模式相互比较项目第6阶段（CMIP 6）的地球系统模式通常预测未来变暖比以前的CMIP 5努力更大。在这里，我们使用四个CMIP6模型和一系列CMIP5模型在两种未来气候情景下强制多个冰盖模型作为CMIP6冰盖模型相互比较项目（ISMIP 6）的一部分。我们发现，预计海平面的贡献，在2100年从多冰盖模式下的CMIP6情景福尔斯落在CMIP5范围内的南极冰盖，但显着增加格陵兰冰盖。 </p>
<p>Projections of sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models.  The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared to the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models under two future climate scenarios to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the multi ice sheet models under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for the Greenland ice sheet.  </p>