Exploring assumptions in crop breeding for climate resilience: opportunities and principles for integrating climate model projections
Exploring assumptions in crop breeding for climate resilience: opportunities and principles for integrating climate model projections
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-02997-2
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发表时间：
2021-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
S. Whitfield;S. Chapman;Marcelin Tonye Mahop;Chetan Deva;K. Masamba;A. Mwamahonje
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Whitfield;S. Chapman;Marcelin Tonye Mahop;Chetan Deva;K. Masamba;A. Mwamahonje
作物育种以适应不断变化的气候是非洲农业发展投资的一个关键领域，但主动育种以适应不确定的未来气候是一项挑战。在本文中，我们回顾了在南部非洲培育适应气候变化的作物新品种的努力，并评估了气候模型预测目前为作物育种活动提供信息的程度。基于对种子系统参与者的调查，我们发现，作物和性状的优先顺序仅在有限程度上通过建模预测来告知。我们使用合奏的CORDEX模型为南部非洲世纪中期和末期测试的一些假设，支持当前的育种活动，特别是与育种的持续时间和耐旱性在玉米，并展示了一些方式，这种预测可以帮助告知育种的优先事项和议程设置（例如，通过评估木薯毒性风险的情况下）。基于这些例子，我们提出了气候模型在告知育种优先事项方面的五个潜在应用。此外，在解包的不确定性的来源提出的模型预测，我们讨论了在作物育种中适当使用气候模型信息的一般原则。
Crop breeding for resilience to changing climates is a key area of investment in African agricultural development, but proactively breeding for uncertain future climates is challenging. In this paper, we characterise efforts to breed new varieties of crops for climate resilience in southern Africa and evaluate the extent to which climate model projections currently inform crop breeding activity. Based on a survey of seed system actors, we find that the prioritisation of crops and traits is only informed to a limited extent by modelled projections. We use an ensemble of CORDEX models for mid and end of century for southern Africa to test some of the assumptions that underpin current breeding activity, particularly associated with breeding for reduced durations and drought tolerance in maize, and demonstrate some of the ways in which such projections can help to inform breeding priorities and agenda setting (e.g. through the case of assessing cassava toxicity risk). Based on these examples, we propose five potential applications of climate models in informing breeding priorities. Furthermore, after unpacking the sources of uncertainty within the presented model projections, we discuss general principles for the appropriate use of climate model information in crop breeding.