Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate
Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1562
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Phillips, Adam S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deser, Clara;Knutti, Reto;Phillips, Adam S.
随着气候模型的改进，决策者对准确气候预测的期望越来越高。然而，在许多地方，自然气候变异性对气候可预测性和适应指导的相关目标构成固有的限制，如这里所述的北美。自然变率低的其他地点显示出一个更可预测的未来，在那里，即使在小尺度上，也可以更容易地确定人为强迫。我们呼吁科学家、政策制定者和公众之间进行更有针对性的对话，以改善沟通，避免提高对各地准确区域预测的期望。
As climate models improve, decision-makers' expectations for accurate climate predictions are growing. Natural climate variability, however, poses inherent limits to climate predictability and the related goal of adaptation guidance in many places, as illustrated here for North America. Other locations with low natural variability show a more predictable future in which anthropogenic forcing can be more readily identified, even on small scales. We call for a more focused dialogue between scientists, policymakers and the public to improve communication and avoid raising expectations for accurate regional predictions everywhere.