Early warning signals of changing resilience in the biogeochemistry and biology of a northern hardwood forest
Early warning signals of changing resilience in the biogeochemistry and biology of a northern hardwood forest
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北部阔叶林生物地球化学和生物学恢复力变化的预警信号
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acf3fe
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Templer, Pamela H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Contosta, Alexandra R.;Battles, John J.;Campbell, John L.;Driscoll, Charles T.;Garlick, Sarah R.;Holmes, Richard T.;Likens, Gene E.;Rodenhouse, Nicholas L.;Rogers, Shannon H.;Templer, Pamela H.
复原力是指生态系统在受到干扰时维持功能的能力。在全球范围内，森林正经历着数量、类型和规模都前所未有的干扰，这可能会削弱复原力。早期预警信号是数据的统计特性，随着时间的推移，这些特性的增加可能有助于了解复原力下降的情况，但在森林方面的应用很少。我们量化了四个早期预警信号（标准差，滞后1自相关，偏度和峰度）在去趋势的时间序列的多个生态系统状态变量在哈伯德布鲁克实验森林，新罕布什尔州，美国和分析这些信号如何随着时间的推移而变化。从实验操作区和参考区收集了25至55年的变量，并汇总到年度时间步进行分析。河流钙（该地点的一个关键地球化学变量）的早期预警信号的长期（> 50年）增加表明，经过几十年的酸沉降，恢复能力下降，但仅限于以前被收割的流域。流硝酸盐，一个关键的营养和水污染物的预警信号的趋势，同样表现出下降的恢复力的症状，但在所有流域。一些树木、昆虫和鸟类群体的早期预警信号的时间趋势也表明了弹性的变化，但这种模式在群体之间甚至群体内部都是不同的。总体而言，分析的60%的预警信号表明复原力下降。大多数这些信号发生在偏度和峰度，这表明“闪烁”的行为，与森林过渡到贫营养状态的新证据。另外约40%的预警信号表明，恢复力正在增加或保持不变。因此，在系统具体知识的背景下解释预警信号至关重要。它们可以成为一些关键生态系统变量的有用指标;然而，其他变量的不确定性突出表明，需要在经过充分研究的长期研究地点进一步开发这些工具。
Resilience is the ability of ecosystems to maintain function while experiencing perturbation. Globally, forests are experiencing disturbances of unprecedented quantity, type, and magnitude that may diminish resilience. Early warning signals are statistical properties of data whose increase over time may provide insights into decreasing resilience, but there have been few applications to forests. We quantified four early warning signals (standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation, skewness, and kurtosis) across detrended time series of multiple ecosystem state variables at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA and analyzed how these signals have changed over time. Variables were collected over periods from 25 to 55 years from both experimentally manipulated and reference areas and were aggregated to annual timesteps for analysis. Long-term (> 50 year) increases in early warning signals of stream calcium, a key biogeochemical variable at the site, illustrated declining resilience after decades of acid deposition, but only in watersheds that had previously been harvested. Trends in early warning signals of stream nitrate, a critical nutrient and water pollutant, likewise exhibited symptoms of declining resilience but in all watersheds. Temporal trends in early warning signals of some of groups of trees, insects, and birds also indicated changing resilience, but this pattern differed among, and even within, groups. Overall,∼ 60% of early warning signals analyzed indicated decreasing resilience. Most of these signals occurred in skewness and kurtosis, suggesting'flickering'behavior that aligns with emerging evidence of the forest transitioning into an oligotrophic condition. The other∼ 40% of early warning signals indicated increasing or unchanging resilience. Interpretation of early warning signals in the context of system specific knowledge is therefore essential. They can be useful indicators for some key ecosystem variables; however, uncertainties in other variables highlight the need for further development of these tools in well-studied, long-term research sites.
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影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Derek M. Johnson;Kyle J. Haynes
通讯作者：
Derek M. Johnson;Kyle J. Haynes
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Battles, John J.;Cleavitt, Natalie L.;Fahey, Timothy J.
通讯作者：
Fahey, Timothy J.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
M. Green;S. Bailey;J. Campbell;K. McGuire;A. Bailey;T. Fahey;Nina K. Lany;D. Zietlow
通讯作者：
M. Green;S. Bailey;J. Campbell;K. McGuire;A. Bailey;T. Fahey;Nina K. Lany;D. Zietlow
影响因子：
10.9
作者：
Battles, John J.;Fahey, Timothy J.;Johnson, Chris E.
通讯作者：
Johnson, Chris E.
温带落叶林中相互作用的压力源破坏了基础树种之间的竞争平衡
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Cleavitt, Natalie L.;Battles, John J.;Fahey, Timothy J.;van Doorn, Natalie S.
通讯作者：
van Doorn, Natalie S.