Tropical cyclone movement features in the western North Pacific region based on multi‐dimensional statistical analyses
Tropical cyclone movement features in the western North Pacific region based on multi‐dimensional statistical analyses
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.6916
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发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Wenjian Meng;Hai-jiang Liu;Ming-Sang Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wenjian Meng;Hai-jiang Liu;Ming-Sang Yang
进一步了解历史热带气旋的特征对于防护和减轻西北太平洋地区热带气旋的灾害具有重要意义。本研究通过多维统计分析揭示了西北部地区热带气旋的运动特征。利用中国气象局（CMA）和日本气象厅（JMA）提供的两个代表性TC数据集来研究1951年至2018年期间WNP的历史TC特征。这两个数据集的TC运动特征总体上表现出很大的一致性。根据区域（零维分析）和纬向平均（一维分析）结果发现，低纬度地区热带气旋以较小的速度向西北方向移动，而在高纬度地区则倾向于以较大的速度向东北方向漂移。反曲发生在 25°N 附近，纬向漂移速度方向发生逆转。应用二元正态分布方法（准二维分析），发现纬向分量的随机性一般大于经向分量的随机性。因此，预测不同地区的热带气旋运动时，应重点关注相关问题，而不是普遍关注。完整的二维分析发现，与其他地区相比，北纬10°～25°、东经110°～140°围成的热带气旋漂移速度幅度较小，但强度较强，通过频率较高，容易发生重大热带气旋灾害，对人类和当地社会的安全造成严重威胁。
In order to protect and mitigate the disaster caused by tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific (WNP) region, further understandings of the characteristics of historical TCs are important. In this study, multi‐dimensional statistical analyses are carried out to reveal the TC movement features in the WNP. Two representative TC datasets provided by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are used to investigate the historical TC properties in the WNP covering a time duration from 1951 to 2018. TC movement features generally show the great consistency with respect to these two datasets. Based on the regional (zero‐dimensional analysis) and zonally averaged (one‐dimensional analysis) results, it is found that TCs move northwest with a small velocity at low latitudes, whereas they tend to drift northeast with a large velocity at high latitudes. The recurvature occurs near 25°N where the direction of zonal drift velocity reverses. Applying the bivariate normal distribution method (quasi‐two‐dimensional analysis), the randomness of the zonal component is found to be generally greater than that of the meridional component. Accordingly, relevant attentions, rather than universal ones, should be paid to forecast the TC movement in different regions. Regarding the complete two‐dimensional analysis, it is found that compared with other areas, TCs have a smaller magnitude of drift velocity but stronger intensity with higher passage frequencies in the area enclosed by 10–25°N and 110–140°E, where significant TC‐induced disasters are prone to occur, resulting in a serious threat to the safety of human beings and local societies.