Sea Level Projections From IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Call for a New Climate Adaptation Strategy in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas
Sea Level Projections From IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Call for a New Climate Adaptation Strategy in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas
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DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2021.629470
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发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jian Su;E. Andrée;J. W. Nielsen;S. Olsen;K. Madsen
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作者：
Jian Su;E. Andrée;J. W. Nielsen;S. Olsen;K. Madsen
丹麦有一条漫长而复杂的海岸线，通过斯卡格拉克-卡特加特海连接着西部的北海和东部的半封闭的波罗的海。历史海平面记录表明，随着全球平均海平面(GMSL)的上升，位于斯卡格拉克以南的丹麦北海海岸的相对海平面(RSL)一直在上升。在斯卡格拉克-卡特加特海中部，由于冰川后的芬诺斯坎迪亚大陆隆起抵消了GMSL隆升，RSL隆起实际上已经消失。新的气专委关于气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈的特别报告(SROCC)报告说，根据RCP8.5，由于南极冰盖动力学，到21世纪末，GMSL将比气专委第五次评估报告(AR5)中以前的估计增加更多。我们对“丹麦气候地图集”数据集--基于气专委和各种国家和国际数据库的全国气候适应数据集--的SROCC海平面预测进行了区域化。在这些补充数据集中，考虑了重要的地方数据，这些数据没有包括在气专委SROCC全球海平面上升估计中，即更准确的全国陆地上升预测和海平面指纹集。我们的结果表明，RCP8.5下的海平面预测将导致21世纪末斯卡格拉克-卡特加特海域RSL上升40厘米，这可能需要在该地区制定新的适应战略。平均海平面上升速度将超过RCP8.5情景下AR5先前估计的陆地上升速度。我们特别强调，这些新的估计数将如何影响该区域未来的极端海平面。根据我们的结果，我们建议在本世纪斯卡格拉克-卡特加特海的沿海风险评估中也需要考虑这一较新的GMSL预测。
Denmark has a long, complex coastline, connecting the North Sea in the west to the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea in the east, via the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas. Historical sea level records indicate that relative sea level (RSL) has been increasing along the Danish North Sea coast, south of Skagerrak, following the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. In the central Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas, RSL rise has been practically absent, due to the GMSL rise being off-set by the Fennoscandian post-glacial land-uplift. The new IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) reported that under RCP8.5 GMSL will increase more than the previous estimates in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) at the end of twenty-first century due to Antarctic ice sheet dynamics. We performed a regionalization of the SROCC sea level projections for the “Danish Climate Atlas” dataset, a nation-wide climate adaptation dataset based on IPCC and various national and international databases. In these complementary datasets, important local data have been considered, which have not been included in the IPCC SROCC GMSL rise estimates, i.e., more precise national-wide land-rise prediction and sets of sea level fingerprints. Our results indicate that sea level projections under RCP8.5 results in a > 40 cm RSL rise at the end of the twenty-first century in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas, which might call for a new adaptation strategy in this region. The rate of mean sea level rise will exceed the rate of the land-rise earlier than the previous estimates by AR5 under the RCP8.5 scenario. In particular, we stress how these new estimates will affect future extreme sea levels in this region. Based on our results, we suggest this more recent GMSL projection needs to be considered in coastal risk assessments in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas also in this century.