Uncertainties in quantitative time‐lapse seismic analysis
Uncertainties in quantitative time‐lapse seismic analysis
复制标题
定量时移地震分析的不确定性
DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2478.2002.00330.x
复制
发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
M. Landrø
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Landrø
到目前为止，大多数地震时间推移研究都是定性的。识别地震变化较小或没有地震变化的区域已用于规划新的加密钻井目标。无论是在传统的拖缆勘探中，还是在多分量海底地震和永久传感器等较新的方法中，地震采集方法的精度都有所提高，这为下一步的定量时移分析提供了可能性。定量方法在此意味着估算例如流体饱和度从20%水到90%水的变化或估算5MPa的孔隙压力变化。 与估计的变化，例如，储层压力和流体饱和度的不确定性的显式表达式推导。这些公式可以用来比较估计参数之间的相对不确定度，以及识别各种估计技术中的关键因素。强调了准确的岩石物理输入以及高度可重复的时移地震数据的重要性。此外，当通过两种或三种不同的技术估计相同的参数（例如饱和度变化）时，不确定性分析可以用于找到最佳权重因子。
Most seismic time‐lapse studies so far have been of a qualitative nature. Identification of areas with minor or no seismic changes has been used to plan new infill drilling targets. Increased accuracy in seismic acquisition methods, in both conventional streamer surveys and newer methods such as multicomponent sea‐bed seismic and permanent sensors, opens possibilities for the next step: quantitative time‐lapse analysis. Quantitative methods here mean the estimation of, for instance, a change in fluid saturation from 20% water to 90% water or the estimation of a pore pressure change of 5 MPa. Explicit expressions for the uncertainties associated with estimated changes in, for instance, reservoir pressure and fluid saturation are derived. These formulae can be used to compare relative uncertainties between estimated parameters as well as to identify the critical factors in various estimation techniques. The importance of accurate rock physics input, as well as that of highly repeatable time‐lapse seismic data, is emphasized. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis can be used to find optimal weight factors when the same parameter (e.g. saturation change) is estimated by two or three different techniques.