New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis.

New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis.
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DOI:
10.1002/cam4.292
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发表时间:
2014-10
期刊:
影响因子:
4
通讯作者:
Ogawa, Hirofumi
Ogawa, Hirofumi
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Katagiri, Hirohisa;Okada, Rieko;Takagi, Tatsuya;Takahashi, Mitsuru;Murata, Hideki;Harada, Hideyuki;Nishimura, Tetsuo;Asakura, Hirofumi;Ogawa, Hirofumi

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本研究的目的是通过引入新的因素(实验室数据)并分析新的患者队列,更新Katagiri等人在2005年提出的骨转移患者的既往评分系统。2005年1月至2008年1月,我们治疗了808例有症状的骨转移患者。无论其治疗如何,均进行了前瞻性登记,并于2012年进行了最后一次随访评价。有441名男性和367名女性患者,中位年龄为64岁。在这些患者中,749人接受了非手术治疗,而其余59人接受了骨转移手术。采用考克斯比例风险模型进行多变量分析。我们确定了六个重要的生存预后因素,即原发灶,内脏或脑转移,异常的实验室数据,性能状态差,既往化疗,多发性骨转移。前三个因素的影响比其他三个因素大。通过将各个因素的所有评分相加来计算预后评分。预后评分≥7分,6个月生存率为27%,1年生存率仅为6%。相反,预后评分≤3的患者1年生存率为91%,2年生存率为78%。与之前的系统相比,使用修订后的系统错误预测的患者数量明显减少。这种修订后的评分系统能够更准确地预测骨转移患者的生存率比以前的系统,并可能是有用的选择一个最佳的治疗。
The aim of this study was to update a previous scoring system for patients with skeletal metastases, that was proposed by Katagiri et al. in 2005, by introducing a new factor (laboratory data) and analyzing a new patient cohort. Between January 2005 and January 2008, we treated 808 patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases. They were prospectively registered regardless of their treatments, and the last follow-up evaluation was performed in 2012. There were 441 male and 367 female patients with a median age of 64 years. Of these patients, 749 were treated nonsurgically while the remaining 59 underwent surgery for skeletal metastasis. A multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified six significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the primary lesion, visceral or cerebral metastases, abnormal laboratory data, poor performance status, previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The first three factors had a larger impact than the remaining three. The prognostic score was calculated by adding together all the scores for individual factors. With a prognostic score of ≥7, the survival rate was 27% at 6 months, and only 6% at 1 year. In contrast, patients with a prognostic score of ≤3 had a survival rate of 91% at 1 year, and 78% at 2 years. Comparing the revised system with the previous one, there was a significantly lower number of wrongly predicted patients using the revised system. This revised scoring system was able to predict the survival rates of patients with skeletal metastases more accurately than the previous system and may be useful for selecting an optimal treatment.
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