THE CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES
THE CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8306.1985.tb00079.x
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发表时间：
1985-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
BARNES, DF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
ALLEN, JC;BARNES, DF
发展中国家在能源领域面临着一把双刃剑。一方面，石油价格的上涨降低了化石燃料能源的潜力，并侵蚀了石油进口国的外汇储备。与此同时，森林砍伐可能导致诸如薪材和木炭等燃料价格上涨或短缺。本文回顾了对发展中国家森林砍伐的最新和有时有争议的估计，并分析了森林砍伐及其可能原因之间的关系。本文利用秩序相关性对1968年至1978年间发展中国家森林砍伐率的三个最新估计进行了比较。其中关于封闭森林和潮湿热带森林的两项估计非常一致，但与包括开放林地和再生森林的第三项估计不同。对于一组受限制的国家来说，这三个来源之间的协议是强有力的。一项跨国分析证实了最常被提及的毁林原因。非洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲39个国家1968 - 78年的森林砍伐与这一时期的人口增长率以及1968年的木材燃料生产和木材出口密切相关；它与农业扩张间接相关，与人均国民生产总值增长无关。结果表明，在短期内，森林砍伐是由于人口增长和农业扩张造成的，从长期来看，砍伐木材用于燃料和出口加剧了森林砍伐。
Developing nations are faced with a two‐edged sword in the field of energy. On the one hand the rising price of oil has reduced the potential for fossil fuel energy and eroded foreign exchange reserves in oil‐importing countries. At the same time deforestation may be causing increased prices or shortages of fuels such as fuelwood and charcoal. This paper reviews the most recent and sometimes controversial estimates of deforestation in developing countries and analyzes the relationship between deforestation and its probable causes. Three recent estimates of the rate of deforestation in developing countries between 1968 and 1978 are compared using rank order correlation. Two of the estimates, of closed forest and moist tropical forest, are in significant agreement but differ from a third estimate that includes open woodland and regenerating forest. Agreement is strong among all three sources for a restricted group of countries. A cross‐national analysis confirms the most frequently cited causes of deforestation. Deforestation from 1968–78 in 39 countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia is significantly related to the rate of population growth over the period and to wood fuels production and wood exports in 1968; it is indirectly related to agricultural expansion and not related to the growth of per capita GNP. Results indicate that in the short term, deforestation is due to population growth and agricultural expansion, aggravated over the long term by wood harvesting for fuel and export.