Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050
Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-021-05179-6
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发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
V. Melnikov;Victor I. Osipov;A. V. Brouchkov;A. Falaleeva;S. Badina;M. Zheleznyak;M. Sadurtdinov;Nikolay A. Ostrakov;D. Drozdov;A. B. Osokin;D. Sergeev;Vladimir A. Dubrovin;R. Fedorov
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文献类型：
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作者：
V. Melnikov;Victor I. Osipov;A. V. Brouchkov;A. Falaleeva;S. Badina;M. Zheleznyak;M. Sadurtdinov;Nikolay A. Ostrakov;D. Drozdov;A. B. Osokin;D. Sergeev;Vladimir A. Dubrovin;R. Fedorov
这是试图预测因永久冻土退化而失去承载能力对公共基础设施的潜在经济影响。到 2050 年，俄罗斯北极永久冻土区 39 个城市的多个气候未来的与气候变化相关的成本增加（经济损失或损害）预计将分别增加。年平均地温的假设变化是根据空气和地温趋势和监测数据推断的，并参考俄罗斯气象局气候中心（RosHydromet）的预测和气候变化情景（代表性浓度路径RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）。根据地面和空气年平均温度之间的差异，对具有不同地面温度假设的十二种可能情况进行了计算。由于辐射、降雪、植被和大气降水影响而产生的这种差异或温度变化是通过根据气候变量的可能变化进行计算或通过对不同北极地区报告的已知值进行求和来估计的。经济损失分别根据永久冻土参数极值时的最大值和最小值进行评估。假设永久冻土上的建筑物和设施具有带摩擦桩的桩基。永久冻土融化的影响是指土壤承载基础设施支撑结构的能力丧失，导致变形和破坏。如果变化超出俄罗斯建筑规范的安全裕度，则影响被视为重大。预计主要经济部门的住房和建筑物及结构受到的损害最大。住宅基础设施的货币价值是使用专门编制的库存数据库估算的，其中包括 39 个选定的俄罗斯北极城市总面积 44,600 平方公里的 23,900 栋房屋的地址、年龄和表面积。固定资产的估算源于这样的假设：其货币价值与相应经济部门的总产出成正比，而总产出又与俄罗斯不同地区平均工业系数修正后的工资总额相关。潜在损失可能高达 1,320 亿美元（总计），仅住宅基础设施损失就高达 150 亿美元，这与其他估计基本一致。
This is an attempt to predict the potential economic impacts on public infrastructure upon degrading permafrost which is losing its bearing capacity. Climate change-related increases in costs (economic losses or damage) are estimated for several climate futures by 2050 separately for 39 municipalities located in the Russian Arctic permafrost domain. The hypothetical changes in mean annual ground temperature are inferred from air and ground temperature trends and monitoring data, with reference to forecasts of the Climate Center of the Russian Meteorological Service (Roshydromet) and climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The calculations were performed for twelve possible cases with different air ground temperature assumptions, with regard to the difference between the ground and air mean annual temperatures. This difference, or temperature shifts, due to radiation, snow, vegetation, and atmospheric precipitation effects, was estimated either by means of calculations proceeding from possible changes of climate variables or by summation of known values reported from different Arctic areas. The economic losses were evaluated as maximum and minimum values at extreme values of permafrost parameters, separately for each case. The buildings and facilities on permafrost were assumed to have pile foundations with friction piles. The permafrost thaw impact was meant as the loss of the soil capacity to bear the support structures for the infrastructure leading to deformation and failure. The impact was considered significant if the change exceeded the safety margin according to the Russian Building Code. The greatest damage is expected to housing stock and buildings and structures of main economic sectors. The monetary value of the residential infrastructure was estimated using a specially compiled inventory database including address, age, and surface area of 23.900 houses in 39 selected Russian Arctic municipalities over a total area of 44.600 km2. The estimation of fixed assets stemmed from the assumption that their monetary value is proportional to the gross output in the respective economic sector, which, in its turn, correlates with the payroll total corrected for mean industry coefficients for different regions of Russia. The potential damage may reach up to US$ 132 billion (total) and ~ US$ 15 billion for residential infrastructure alone, which generally agrees with other estimates.