Understanding farmers’ perception of extreme weather events and adaptive measures
Understanding farmers’ perception of extreme weather events and adaptive measures
复制标题
了解农民对极端天气事件的看法和适应性措施
DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2023.100494
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Clay, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Etumnu, Chinonso;Wang, Tong;Jin, Hailong;Sieverding, Heidi L.;Ulrich-Schad, Jessica D.;Clay, David
极端天气事件在美国各地造成了生命和经济损失。此外，预计它们的频率将会增加，这将加剧它们对农业等脆弱部门的影响。但农民如何通过采取不同的保护措施来适应极端天气事件，在文献中得到了轻微的关注。这项研究考察了农民对干旱和洪水的看法如何影响他们在传统农田实施保护措施的决定。在我们收到的350份农民回复中，不到一半的人表示可能采取免耕/少耕(43%)、覆盖作物(40%)、作物多样化(37%)和农牧结合(29%)。使用这些数据和多变量概率模型框架，我们表明农民的决策可以部分地由他们对干旱的感知来解释，而不是由他们对洪水的感知来解释。具体地说，人们认为的干旱年数大大增加了今后采用免耕/少耕和多样化种植的可能性。然而，干旱年数与覆盖作物和综合作物-牲畜放牧的使用没有明显的联系。这些结果表明，极端天气事件对采用作为适应性措施的保护措施的影响在不同的做法中有所不同。因此，利用养护做法的适应政策必须适应农民的需求和优先事项才能有效。
Extreme weather events have cost lives and financial losses across the United States. Moreover, they are expected to increase in frequency, and this will exacerbate their impact on vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. But how farmers could adapt to extreme weather events by adopting different conservation practices has received slight attention in the literature. This study examines how farmers' perceptions of drought and flooding influence their decisions to implement conservation practices in their conventional crop fields. Out of the 350 farmer responses we received, fewer than half indicated a likelihood to adopt no-tillage/reduced tillage (43%), cover crops (40%), crop diversification (37%), and integrated crop-livestock grazing (29%). Using this data and a multivariate probit modeling framework, we show that farmers’ decisions can be partly explained by their perception of drought but not by their perception of flooding. Specifically, the perceived number of drought years significantly increases the likelihood of adopting no-tillage/reduced tillage and diversified cropping in the future. However, the number of drought years is not significantly associated with the use of cover crops and integrated crop-livestock grazing. These results suggest that the effects of extreme weather events on adoption of conservation practices as adaptive measures vary across different practices. Therefore, adaptation policies that make use of conservation practices must be tailored to farmers’ needs and priorities to be effective.