Reversal of the 1960s to 1990s freshening trend in the northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas
Reversal of the 1960s to 1990s freshening trend in the northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas
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DOI：
10.1029/2007gl032675
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发表时间：
2008-02-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Walczowski, W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holliday, N. Penny;Hughes, S. L.;Walczowski, W.
北大西洋东北部和北欧海的水文时间序列表明，20世纪60年代至90年代上层海洋的淡水化趋势已经完全逆转。自20世纪90年代以来，从亚极环流东部到弗拉姆海峡的大西洋流入的温度和盐度迅速上升。在2003-2006年，盐度值达到了上一次在1960年前后观测到的最大值，温度值也超过了记录。大西洋流入的平均性质向北减弱，但在北纬57度的东部次极环流中所见的变化沿着通往弗拉姆海峡的路径以相同的幅度和模式持续存在。时间序列相关性和极端事件表明，在这段时间内存在3-4年的时间滞后。这一估计可以做出预测；弗拉姆海峡大西洋海水的温度可能在2007年或2008年开始下降，盐度可能在一年后开始下降，但至少在2010年之前，两者都将保持高位。
Hydrographic time series in the northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas show that the freshening trend of the 1960s-1990s has completely reversed in the upper ocean. Since the 1990s temperature and salinity have rapidly increased in the Atlantic Inflow from the eastern subpolar gyre to the Fram Strait. In 2003-2006 salinity values reached the previous maximum last observed around 1960, and temperature values exceeded records. The mean properties of the Atlantic Inflow decrease northwards, but variations seen in the eastern subpolar gyre at 57 degrees N persist with the same amplitude and pattern along the pathways to Fram Strait. Time series correlations and extreme events suggest a time lag of 3-4 years over that distance. This estimate allows predictions to be made; the temperature of Atlantic water in the Fram Strait may start to decline in 2007 or 2008, salinity a year later, but both will remain high at least until 2010.