Age, Period and Cohort Effects on Time Trends in Alcohol Consumption in the Swedish Adult Population 1979-2011
Age, Period and Cohort Effects on Time Trends in Alcohol Consumption in the Swedish Adult Population 1979-2011
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DOI：
10.1093/alcalc/agv013
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Room, Robin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kraus, Ludwig;Tinghog, Mimmi Eriksson;Room, Robin
目的：在瑞典，过去 20 年来，饮酒量有所增加，而消费量在 2004 年达到峰值后最近有所下降。为了了解这些趋势的动态，本研究旨在估计年龄、时期和队列 (APC) 对过去 30 年来饮酒流行趋势以及总体和特定饮料量的影响。方法：使用交叉分类随机效应模型对 1979 年至 2011 年的七项横断面调查进行 APC 分析（CCREM）按性别分类。具有全国代表性的样本包括 77,598 名年龄在 16 岁至 80 岁之间的受访者。结果指标是 30 天的饮酒流行率、总体饮酒量以及特定饮料饮酒量。结果：流行率、总体饮酒量和特定饮料饮酒量的趋势受到 APC 的显着影响。流行率和总消费量的时期效应在2005年有所增加后呈现小幅下降。啤酒和葡萄酒的平均消费量在2005年达到峰值后趋于平稳，烈酒消费量不断下降。男性群体（1945-1985）的预测酒精患病率总体保持在同一水平，而二战后女性群体的酒精患病率则有所下降。结果表明，1940 年代、1950 年代和 1980 年代出生的人群总体消费量和特定饮料消费量较高。结论：1940-1950 年代的高消费人群是 2005 年消费量增长的关键。随着这些人群生命周期的进展、连续人群的患病率和饮酒量的下降，似乎导致了瑞典近期酒精使用量的下降趋势。
Aims: In Sweden, alcohol abstention has increased over the last 20 years and consumption has recently decreased after a peak in 2004. To understand the dynamics of these trends the present study aims at estimating age, period and cohort (APC) effects on trends in alcohol use prevalence as well as overall and beverage-specific volume of drinking over the last three decades.Methods: APC analysis of seven cross-sectional surveys from 1979 to 2011 was conducted using cross-classified random effects models (CCREMs) by gender. The nationally representative samples comprised 77,598 respondents aged 16-80 years. Outcome measures were 30-day prevalence of alcohol use and overall as well as beverage-specific alcohol volume.Results: Trends in prevalence, overall and beverage-specific volume were significantly affected by APC. The period effects of prevalence and overall volume showa small decline after an increase up to the year 2005. Mean beer and wine volume levelled off after a peak in 2005 and volume of spirits drinking decreased constantly. Predicted alcohol prevalence rates in male cohorts (1945-1985) remained generally at the same level, while they declined in post-World War II female generations. Results point to high overall and beverage-specific consumption among cohorts born in the 1940s, 1950s and 1980s.Conclusions: High consuming cohorts of the 1940-1950s were key in rising consumption up to 2005. Progression through the life course of these cohorts, a decrease in prevalence and drinking volume in successive cohorts seem to have contributed to the recent downward trend in alcohol use in Sweden.