Averting a global financial crisis: the US, the IMF, and the Mexican debt crisis of 1976
Averting a global financial crisis: the US, the IMF, and the Mexican debt crisis of 1976
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避免全球金融危机：美国、国际货币基金组织和 1976 年墨西哥债务危机
DOI：
10.1080/07075332.2017.1326966
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Paul Kershaw
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Paul Kershaw
本文解释了最初使用国际货币基金组织（IMF）调整计划作为避免可能的全球银行危机的战略策略的政治和外交。学者们通常将这一战略追溯到20世纪80年代初里根政府对东欧和拉丁美洲主权债务危机的反应。这篇文章表明，这种方法起源于1976年墨西哥债务危机-第一个潜在的战后违约的发展中国家，威胁到国际银行倒闭。美国和墨西哥的主要官员认识到，国际货币基金组织的货币贬值和紧缩计划可能无法实现其减少墨西哥国际收支赤字的既定目标。尽管如此，美国财政部和联邦官员担心墨西哥违约可能导致银行倒闭和随后的全球金融危机，在国际货币基金组织和墨西哥之间的谈判中进行了前所未有的干预。美国提供了直接的财政支持，并通过外交渠道坚持要求墨西哥接受国际货币基金组织的调整计划，作为救助美国银行的一种方式。墨西哥总统路易斯·埃切维里亚（Luis Echeverría）的政府同意IMF的调整，因为官员们认为这是一系列替代方案中政治成本最低的选择。
ABSTRACT This article explains the politics and diplomacy of the initial use of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjustment program as a tactic in a strategy to avert a possible global banking crisis. Scholars typically date the strategy to the Reagan administration's response to the sovereign debt crises in Eastern Europe and Latin America in the early 1980s. This article demonstrates that the approach originated instead during the 1976 Mexican debt crisis – the first potential postwar default by a developing country that threatened international bank failures. Key US and Mexican officials recognized that an IMF program of currency devaluation and austerity would probably fail in its stated objective of reducing Mexico's balance of payments deficit. Nevertheless, US Treasury and Federal Reserve officials, fearing that a Mexican default might lead to bank failures and subsequent global financial crisis, intervened to an unprecedented degree in the negotiations between the IMF and Mexico. The United States offered direct financial support and worked through diplomatic channels to insist that Mexico accept an IMF adjustment program, as a way of bailing out US banks. Mexican president Luis Echeverría's administration consented to IMF adjustment because officials perceived it as the least politically costly option among a range of alternatives.