How much can screening reduce colorectal cancer mortality in Japan? Scenario-based estimation by microsimulation
How much can screening reduce colorectal cancer mortality in Japan? Scenario-based estimation by microsimulation
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DOI：
10.1093/jjco/hyab195
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发表时间：
2021-12-12
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Katanoda, Kota
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kamo, Ken-Ichi;Fukui, Keisuke;Katanoda, Kota
利用微观模拟模型，评估了不同筛查参与率情景下降低结直肠癌年龄标准化死亡率的效果。背景筛查是降低结直肠癌死亡率的有效干预措施之一。虽然日本政府推荐粪便潜血试验和结肠镜检查作为诊断后的后续检查，但这两种检查的参与率并不高，全国死亡率也没有明显下降的趋势。方法微观模拟模型模拟大量个体在不同情景下的生活史。在这项研究中，我们应用了一个微观模拟模型来估计基于筛查方案的结直肠癌死亡率的降低。结果在50%参加粪便潜血试验和90%参加随访检查的情景下，估计降低结直肠癌年龄标化死亡率的效果为男性9.4%和女性6.0%。这一设想与日本促进癌症控制方案基本计划第三期的筛查目标相对应。结论该模型可用于评估癌症控制政策的死亡率降低效果。这种建模技术可用于开发有效和最佳的癌症控制方案。
The effect of reducing the age-standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer was estimated under the various scenario for the rate of participation to the screening by using microsimulation model.Background Screening is one of the effective interventions for the reduction of colorectal cancer mortality. Though the Japanese government recommends faecal occult blood test and colonoscopy as a follow-up examination following a diagnosis, both participation rates have not been so high and the national mortality rate has not shown a clear decreasing trend. Methods Microsimulation models simulate the life histories of a large population of individuals under various scenarios. In this study, we applied a microsimulation model to estimate the reduction of colorectal cancer mortality based on screening scenarios. Results The effect of reducing the age-standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer was estimated at 9.4% for men and 6.0% for women under the scenario which calls for 50% participation in faecal occult blood test and 90% participation of follow-up examination. This scenario corresponds to the goal setting for screening in the third-term of the Basic Plan to Promote Cancer Control Programs in Japan. Conclusions Our microsimulation model was found to be useful in estimating the mortality reduction effect of cancer control policy. Such modelling techniques can be utilized to develop effective and optimal cancer control programs.