One gang dies, another gains? The network dynamics of criminal group persistence
One gang dies, another gains? The network dynamics of criminal group persistence
复制标题
一个团伙死亡，另一个团伙获益？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yanick Charette
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marie Ouellet;M. Bouchard;Yanick Charette
是什么导致少数犯罪集团长期存在？虽然大多数犯罪集团的特点是寿命短，但也有一部分犯罪集团能够存活较长时间。当代对犯罪集团的研究主要是描述性的和静态的，留下了关于群体持久性相关关系的重要问题没有答案。从相互矛盾的观点出发，本研究采用纵向研究方法来考察网络动态对犯罪集团寿命的影响。九年来关于蒙特利尔犯罪和帮派成员社会网络的官方数据被用来划定犯罪集团的边界，并检查集团持续时间的变化。我们的统计方法同时考虑了群体内部和群体之间的属性，以隔离群体的凝聚力以及他们在更广泛的帮派结构中的嵌入性如何影响生存。结果表明，群体生存是群体内聚性和嵌入性的结果。然而，这种关系不是直接的，而是受群体规模的影响。然而，采用封闭结构的大群体更有可能持续存在，而小群体的生存则依赖于凝聚力较低、结构更多样化的群体。讨论考虑了这些发现对继续理解群体轨迹的影响。
What leads a minority of criminal groups to persist over time? Although most criminal groups are characterized by short life spans, a subset manage to survive over extended periods. Contemporary research on criminal groups has been primarily descriptive and static, leaving important questions on the correlates of group persistence unanswered. Drawing from competing perspectives on the relationship between cohesion and group persistence, the current study applies a longitudinal approach to examine the network dynamics influencing the life span of criminal groups. Nine years of official data on the criminal and social networks of gang-associates in Montreal is used to delineate criminal group boundaries and examine variation in group duration. Our statistical approach simultaneously considers within and between-group attributes to isolate how groups’ cohesion as well as their embeddedness in the wider gang structure impacts survival. Results show that group survival is a function of their cohesion and embeddedness. Yet, the relationship is not direct but moderated by group size. Whereas, large groups that adopt closed structures are more likely to persist, small groups’ survival depends on less cohesive and more versatile structures. The discussion considers the impact of these findings for the continued understanding of group trajectories.